Mar 312013
 

meteogram_miniA pesky band of rain showers and some thunder has developed along a shift in the wind this morning.  It will move along in short order and still allow a great Easter Sunday to unfold.

Warm Easter

A push of drier and warm air will come into the Ozarks from the west today.  Easter (and the last day of March) will be warm with high temperatures pushing into the upper sixties.

By late tonight, a much stronger system will usher in cold air for this time of year.

Winter-Feel

Monday and Tuesday will be much colder in the Ozarks. Both days will feature maximum temperatures only in the forties, almost 20 degrees below what might be expected in early April.

A band of precipitation will drop down over the area late on Monday. This will start as light rain showers and will probably transition to snow over some the Ozarks Monday evening.  I’m not expecting anything that falls to stick, but’s it’s hard to take after a weekend of sixties!

Tuesday will be the coldest day of the seven day forecast.

Spring Returns

The rest of weekend the the upcoming weekend will be spent warming up. Each day should get progressively warmer. I have sixties back in the forecast for Friday and Saturday and I think that level of warm should last even beyond Saturday and into the early part of the following week.

Storm Chasing

There is at least a chance for a “Lock and Load” storm chase toward the end of  my next chase window, April 4-8.  If you have been thinking about this, let me know so I can put you on the list!  Just e-mail me at ted@tedwkeller.com. All of the information on “Tornado Ted’s Storm Chase Tour” can be found under the menu tab above.

 

 

Mar 302013
 

Conditions for Severe Storms

Conditions for Severe Storms

A severe thunderstorm watch is in effect for areas of western Missouri west and northwest of Springfield (and a chunk of southeastern Kansas) until 10 p.m.

The air out over eastern Kansas and extreme western Missouri is becoming more unstable this afternoon with increased heating as the clouds move east and with higher humidity coming up from the south.

There are also some boundaries. One cool air boundary was left behind by the morning and early afternoon batch of rain. Another wind shift will be advancing on the area from the northwest later today.

This is mainly a hail and strong wind threat for the watch area.  An isolated weak tornado risk is possible if a supercell can 1) hold together long enough in a marginal shear environment and 2) such a cell can follow the cool air boundary mentioned above.

Any storms which become severe will quickly diminish by early evening.  The Ozarks are largely not affected by this threat but folks in the watch area should monitor radar and warnings throughout the early evening.

With regard to a storm chase, I have about one hour to watch and decide. This would be a private chase, mostly to test equipment and procedures.

If you don’t already know, I’ll be hosting storm chase tours this Spring with the first window coming up next weekend.  Sign up!

 

Mar 302013
 

Radar/Temperatures at 8 a.m.

Radar/Temperatures at 8 a.m.

Showers and some thunder will visit the Ozarks today but Easter Sunday should be fantastic!

More Rain

Rain on morning radar is showing up in southwest Missouri and over much of eastern Kansas.  This activity is sliding east-southeast this morning and will affect the area through about Noon.  Some thunder may be included in this batch of rain but no severe weather is expected.

More scattered showers and storms might redevelop later today along a wind shift line. While there is an outside chance for some hail with these storms, the overall threat of severe weather remains low for much of the area.

Some folks may pick up an additional .25 to .75″ of rain, especially the more south and southwest your location is from Springfield.

I’ve outlined the heavier rain and hail areas I expect today on the Drawing Board.

Great Easter!

Mostly sunny skies and gorgeous temperatures await us this Easter!  Sunrise is at 7 a.m. on Sunday and skies should be clear to partly cloudy.

After starting in the upper forties, the day should quickly warm and all areas of the Ozarks should go back into the sixties!

April Fool’s Day

Monday will be colder as a fresh shot of cold air arrives the night before.

Precipitation forming behind the front will take the form of a chilly rain during the day Monday and may mix with or change over to a wet snow for some Monday evening.  No accumulation is expected with this snowfall but hard to discuss in early April!

Rest of the Workweek

The week looks dry and chilly for Tuesday and Wednesday but warms by the end.  We should get sixties back by the end of the week and into the following weekend.

 

 

 

 

March 2012 vs. 2013

 Posted by at 2:48 am on March 30, 2013  Climate  No Responses »
Mar 302013
 

March Comparisons: 2012 vs. 2013

March 2012 was a record warm month for Springfield.  We experienced four eighty-degree days and about half of the month had highs over seventy.

March of 2013 will average out quite cool with a snow total of 4.3″!

Here is a neat slider I put together comparing the two months:

march2012march2013

Mar 292013
 

Computer Model Temperature Trends

Computer Model Temperature Trends

It’s a forecast which includes thunder, sixties and snow as Easter Sunday and the first days of April come into sight.

Showers Today

Early morning radar shows rain showers and some thunder rumbles out there. Light to moderate rain at times. The bands of rain are sliding ESE and will begin to depart the area by late morning and early afternoon.

More showers and a few thundershowers will form later tonight in a similar pattern.  These I think might lean a tad more to the south, be slightly heavier and track in about the same way.

Staying Warm

It will stay warm through the weekend!  Highs will be in the sixties today through Sunday.  Easter Sunday looks great with clearing skies and highs in the lower and middle sixties!

A wind-shift will come in Saturday evening and provide the focus for another round of showers and storms. A few of these storms out over Kansas and Oklahoma could develop some gusty winds and hail but as of now, this doesn’t look like a huge issue for the Ozarks on Saturday.

The rain and thunder along this wind in the wind will be healthy, nice additional Spring rains! And it will be gone by early Sunday morning.

Some Monday Snow?

Some Monday Snow?

Cold/Snow Shot

The beginning of April unfortunately will start cold once again as we go back to our old ways of highs in the forties and lows in the twenties.  This will be the case on Monday and Tuesday with more mild conditions by the end of next week.

On Monday, a mix of rain and snow will develop behind the cold air advance and by nightfall could just be pure snow in the Ozarks.

 

Mar 282013
 

The Chase Begins!

The Chase Begins!

While severe storms can of course happen year ’round, the season really starts for me on Thursday April 4th.

The dates of April 4th through April 8th are the first of my “Lock and Load” storm chase opportunities.  While I have been chasing storms personally for many years, this is the first season for my new adventure, “Tornado Ted’s Storm Chasing Tour”!

I’m excited because my first ad for this newly formed company appears in the April edition of 417 Magazine.  It’s quite nice and thanks go out to the crew at 417 and to Gary Whitaker for the write-up.

“Tornado Ted’s Storm Chasing Tour”  is your opportunity to storm chase with the senior meteorologist of the Ozarks!  I offer a range of different tours suited for just about everyone.  Whether you’re an educator, student, photographer, adventure seeker or just looking for something unique to try, I invite you to come along.  I’ll provide the background and education in route to the storm that only a veteran of storm chasing and forecasting can provide. Then when the storms start to brew, hang on!

The calendar-based tours are fixed on certain dates. These are coming up later in May and June during the statistical peak of tornado season.

The storm-based or “Lock and Load” tours will be available starting this upcoming weekend. These are particularly exciting as they will occur only if the weather stirs up. Therefore, someone who signs up for a “Lock and Load” will be guaranteed a severe storms show!  You will have to be ready to go on perhaps only a few days or even one night notice.  Please e-mail me at ted@tedwkeller.com if you desire to be on the contact list for a “Lock and Load” tour.

You will find a daily post of my outlook for chase-able storms for the next upcoming “Lock and Load” tour.

You can find out all of the information you need on storm chasing with me on this site, look for the menu tab above.

 

 

Mar 282013
 

HPC Rain Forecast Through Sunday Morning

HPC Rain Forecast Through Sunday Morning

Finally, a morning where the low temperatures don’t look like the highs for the day. It’s warming up!  The seven day forecast is posted.

Nearing Normal

Despite rain chances, temperatures are on the rise.  Today we’ll make a run for sixty in Springfield even with clouds, with sixties more likely in northwest Arkansas.

Friday’s temperature pattern is identical.

On Saturday, a weak cool front is expected by nighttime but before it gets here, I’m forecasting the warmest day of the next seven as sixties become common.

The real shot of colder air sets in Sunday night meaning Easter Sunday won’t be that much colder.

Rain Shots

Later tonight and Friday night, showers and even some rumbles of thunder will be possible. A warm front will be moving north into our area and with a few upper level “ripples”, the rain should come.

Another shot of rain and thunder should come late on Saturday ahead of the cool front.

The rain totals are impressive especially for Friday night.  If these come to pass (HPC forecast included), it would go a long way toward easing drought conditions even more over the area.

Easter

It should work out to be a fine Easter Sunday over the Ozarks. There might be some lingering showers very early in the day over northern Arkansas and south Missouri but they should move on quickly.

Sunrise on Easter is straight up at 7:00 a.m. and it will be cloudy over much of the area still with temperatures in the upper forties.  I expect highs to reach near sixty on Easter!

Return of Cold

On April 1st (I’ll avoid the pun this time), colder air will once again visit the Ozarks. As I mentioned in my blog a few days ago, there is enough cold air to mix with another quick moving disturbance to provide a snow chance for the Ozarks.

It it comes to pass, it would likely be late on Monday and into Monday night. It would be more likely in upstate Missouri.  Oh boy!

Storm Chasing

Finally, please read my blog post on storm chasing with my new adventure this Spring, “Tornado Ted’s Storm Chasing Tour!”

 

 

 

 

Getting Warmer! Chances for Rain

 Posted by at 11:54 am on March 27, 2013  Daily Weather Blog  No Responses »
Mar 272013
 

Potential Precipitation Accumulation Through Model (Models)

Potential Precipitation Accumulation Through Model (Models)

Temperatures are beginning to climb which is the best news I can deliver as we continue to shiver our way through March!

My seven day forecast posted daily.

Heading Up

The latest in a series of cold high pressure systems is easing eastward this morning. It was brought in by a flow pattern aloft featuring very cold air.  This pattern is easing and will continue to do so for the next few days and into the weekend.

As for today, warmer but not completely sunny as the first in a series of weak disturbances take a shot at bringing clouds and showers to the area.  The impact will be small on the area with light rain showers only affecting folks living closer to central and eastern Missouri.

I expect highs today to remain in the forties up north to well into the fifties in northwest Arkansas.

Thursday

This day wins in terms of temperature and dry conditions.  Warmer across the board, into the fifties in most areas.  Rain will come back into the picture by Thursday night for some folks.

Rain Chances

March 2013 Temperatures

March 2013 Temperatures

The chance for rain is present for a few days with several more disturbances coming at us. With each new chance, the coverage and amounts should rise.

By the weekend, thunder will be mixed in with the rain.  I don’t see any threat of severe weather.

We have a chance to pick up anywhere from .90 – 1.40″ of precipitation through Monday in Springfield. Great news for keeping the drought from creeping back.

Mild Weather Weekend

Despite rain chances, the weekend will feel much more like Spring.  With any luck, enough sun will get through on both Saturday and Sunday to boost readings into the sixties!

Cold Front

Sorry folks, no April’s Fool but another cold front will snap our temperatures back once again starting on Monday.  Highs will go back into the 40’s

A system riding into the southern U.S. during this time may tap this colder air and, yes, snow is not out of the question at least briefly on early next week!

 

 

Mar 262013
 

Computer Temperature Trends

Computer Temperature Trends

It’s been cold!  And snowy.  This pattern is easing over the Ozarks leading to milder conditions by weeks’ end.

Cold Snap

This morning the Ozarks is well down in the twenties!  At least the wind has eased a bit (wind chills yesterday were in the teens the entire day!). That’s not to say we’ll feel warm. High temperatures will only manage to climb into the thirties later today.

Temperatures on the Mend

A gradual increase in temperature is in my forecast for the next few days.  The latest cold high will be slipping away allowing conditions to warm. The graph shown indicates fifties by Thursday and I agree,

This type of temperature, or even warmer, will last into the weekend.

My seven day forecast for Springfield is online everyday.

More Rain

We could always use more rain this spring. We’re ahead in precipitation this March and more showers are on the way.

Several shots at rain are coming at us through the weekend.  One minor chance pops up already by tomorrow.

The chances for showers increase by Friday and this weekend as humidity increases and several small disturbances pass over the Ozarks.

A cool front looks probable in the Sunday/Monday time frame which will end the shower threat.

Cold Front/Western Disturbance

Upper Flow (Two Models) Forecast for Sunday Night

Upper Flow (Two Models) Forecast for Sunday Night

The next shot of colder air will settle into the region early next week.

There is a wild card of sorts in the works.  An upper level low which will “dislodge” itself into the central U.S. sometime early next week. How much cold air will still be in place when it does?  The models differ.  I don’t have the heart to tell you what that might mean!  Enough said, April is coming, right?

 

 

 

 

Mar 252013
 

Computer Temperature Trends Through Wednesday

Computer Temperature Trends Through Wednesday

Another snow moved through the Ozarks on Sunday with totals over 5″ common in areas north of Springfield.  Only flurries are expected today.

Snow Totals

Snow Contours from Sunday's Storm

Snow Contours from Sunday’s Storm

1.3″ of snow was officially measured  at the National Weather Service in Springfield. This brings the March snow total to 4.3″ and the winter total to 11.3″.  Like on Thursday, this snow was wet and fell in air temperatures close to freezing so Springfield didn’t experience much of a road travel problem.

The snow north of Springfield was heavier. Areas of Vernon, Cedar, Benton Counties got between 4-6″ inches. Similar totals were common around the Lake of the Ozarks region from this storm.

Brrr!

For late March, this is cold air! Wind chill readings have been hovering in the lower teens early this morning.

Today’s highs will only reach into the thirties.  This is more than twenty degrees below the average temperatures expected for this time in March!

Flurries will be whipping around with no major accumulation expected today.

Wet March

March Precipitation in Springfield, MO

March Precipitation in Springfield, MO

It’s nice to see precipitation heading into Spring, even if it is snow!  The monthly total for Springfield is 3.98″.

Wet March 2013

Wet March 2013

Over the past 30 days, all of the Ozarks has experienced above normal precipitation. Some areas east of Springfield have picked up close to 3″ above the normal precipitation for the period.

Chilly then a Warm-Up

The temperatures will stall here for a few days as a cold high slowly drifts over the central U.S.  Thirties today will be followed by forties on Tuesday.

By Wednesday, I’m hoping for fifty!

The rest of the week looks mild with fifties and even sixties coming back into the forecast!

More Showers

The next rain makers for the Ozarks start showing up around Friday and Saturday. They don’t look huge at this point but perhaps its enough for us not to loose ground on recent nice precipitation rounds.

It looks like possible more active weather on the Spring side of the equation for a change next week.