Mar 242013
 

Radar (Rain/Snow) at 5:50 a.m.

Radar (Rain/Snow) at 5:50 a.m.

Snow and wind are rapidly developing and/or moving toward the Ozarks!

Snow rates of 1-2″ per hour are possible in portions of Kansas and Missouri this early hour as a winter storm revs up.

Wind Gusts at 5 a.m.

Wind Gusts at 5 a.m.

The snow will march from east to west across Missouri this morning.  Travel north to Kansas City is not recommended!

The heaviest snow band for accumulations in excess of 8″ will track north of Springfield this morning and early afternoon.

My Drawing Board has been updated with the latest snow forecast.

In addition to the snow, gusty north to northwest winds will exceed 30 mph at times during the late morning and early afternoon hours. This will reduce visibility more in some areas.

Movement of Rain/Snow Line Today

Movement of Rain/Snow Line Today

This snow has already starting in Joplin. I’d estimate a changeover to snow in Springfield around 7:30 a.m. I included the approximate movement of the rain/snow line over the Ozarks today:

Mar 232013
 

Snow Changeover Will Start Overnight Tonight

Snow Changeover Will Start Overnight Tonight

A winter storm warning is now in effect for a large section of Missouri including Warsaw, Lake of the Ozarks, Camdenton, Hermitage and Osceola for expected snow later tonight and early Sunday.

Second Spring Snow

After a foot of snow was dumped on portions of the Ozarks on Thursday, another winter storm is taking aim.

This one will track differently, travelling west to east across Missouri and leaving a trail of heavy snow.  My latest snow forecast can be found on the Drawing Board.

Prior to the changeover to snow, decent rain will developing the Ozarks later today and into the evening hours.  I’m thinking a good .40 to .60″ rain band will overtake the area later this afternoon and into the evening.

The back edge of this rain area will begin to turn over to snow tonight. The map insert is a model output of precipitation type expected the the blue indicating snow.  A band of 4″ or more is expected in the area of the winter storm warning.

Cooler Weather Continues

Temperature Trends Next 7 Days

Temperature Trends Next 7 Days

For at least the first part of the work week, our weather will stay cool. However, a big warm-up is forecast for the area so that sixties will be back by Thursday and Friday

 

Mar 222013
 

Weather Map/Snow Accumulation From One Model Early Sunday

Weather Map/Snow Accumulation From One Model Early Sunday

This was THE snow of the past two winters! We essentially had only one snow worth mentioning last winter and this winter, storms have mostly put down snow up to our north.

But this one was big and hit more square on the Ozarks and definitely favored areas south and southeast of Springfield.  But portions of Polk, Hickory and Laclede Counties got pretty good snows too!

Springfield broke a snowfall record yesterday at 3″ officially.

Today

Areas of freezing drizzle will give way to drizzle as temperatures rise above freezing in many areas. But to say today will be a warm day would be wrong! Temperatures over the deeper snow areas won’t rise but a few degrees above freezing. Other areas will stay just below forty.

Weekend Rain/Snow

Spread of Ensemble Model for Lake Ozark Snow

Spread of Ensemble Model for Lake Ozark Snow

Another winter storm is taking shape and will affect the Ozarks this weekend!

Before the snow sets in again, rain will begin to break out on Saturday afternoon. By Saturday evening, the rain will begin to change over to snow in areas to the north of Springfield.

A potential for 2-4 inches exists broadly north of I-44 Saturday night with perhaps a touch more closer to central Missouri. Lake Ozark (pictured) might just come in around 5-6″!

 

 

Snow Forecast Vs. Reality

 Posted by at 2:03 am on March 22, 2013  Storm Review  No Responses »
Mar 222013
 

Here are a couple of things:

First, I thought it would be interesting to compare my last snow forecast from late Thursday morning to the actual reports. This is work in progress of course since it’s still snowing and reports are still trickling in. Funny, I would have been better off to keep my higher totals from very early Thursday morning!

Also, here is a slide show of some snow scenes from today, also work in progress:

Mar 212013
 

winter_advisories

Winter Advisories as of 6:30 am

Snow is heading for the Ozarks later today. Damp and chilly weather will last through the weekend.

Snow Today

Snow is on radar early this morning up in Nebraska, part of a developing area which will continue to slide toward the Ozarks through the day.  Initially, dry air will prevent snow from reaching the ground even through it shows up on the radar. (like it is early this morning)

I haven’t changed the forecast snow area much. I narrowed it up a bit and shifted the heavier snow southeast a touch.  I’m gonna keep Springfield at around 4″ still.

This is an “on the freezing point”  snow so it will be wet and much of what falls especially during the daylight hours will start to melt immediately. This will cut down on impact just a touch.

The best accumulations I believe will be over south-central Missouri and north-central Arkansas starting in the late afternoon and into the evening. Areas receiving snow after dark have a better shot at it sticking longer to surfaces.

The snow forecast and timing of the snow is best depicted using the Drawing Board. You can pan and zoom around on this page!

Messy Tonight

Probability of 4" or More of Snow

Probability of 4″ or More of Snow

After the main “lift” passes to our southeast, we have some freezing drizzle and/or rain showers to contend with as early as the evening hours over southwest Missouri and last through the overnight time frame.

I don’t think this will be heavy but it could put a light glaze of ice down in some areas tonight.

Damp and Chilly

This first weekend of Spring looks wet and on the chilly side. It will “warm” ahead of the next storm but this really just means enough to keep the next wave of precipitation liquid, at least to start!  Saturday should warm into the forties.

A round of rain late on Saturday looks robust.  Our total liquid forecast through the weekend looks greater than 1″ in Springfield and perhaps more than 1.5″ off to the southeast.

More Snow?

Liquid Forecast Through Sunday AM

Liquid Forecast Through Sunday AM

The weekend system does have a snow potential with it as well. If this were to happen, it would be late Saturday night or early Sunday. The snow would be most likely north of I-44. Watching.

 

 

 

Snow, Wet and Chilly

 Posted by at 11:44 am on March 20, 2013  Daily Weather Blog  No Responses »
Mar 202013
 

One Computer Output for Snow by Thursday Night

One Computer Output for Snow by Thursday Night

This is an update to the snow potential for tomorrow.  We also have a wet weather system this weekend. All precipitation is good at this point but…

Snow Update

A narrow but intense band of snow is still forecast to develop on Thursday.  The model runs over the last 24 hours since my last blog are about the same with track of the snow varying a bit with bigger fluctuations in snow amounts.

I put up my snow forecast on the drawing board this morning.  My 4″ plus area hasn’t changed a whole lot.  The “plus” could mean 6″ or even more but with these heavy wet snows riding on a small area of lift, it is difficult to know where the upper limit to snow is or where exactly it will fall.

The ensemble runs I mentioned yesterday have narrowed their range (not as extreme) and the mean now for Springfield is right around 4″.

Put me down for 4″ of snow in Springfield. This snow will really get going just after noon on Thursday and last into the early evening.

Note that snow that falls during the daylight hours will melt pretty quickly while snow which falls say in south central Missouri or north central Arkansas will “stick” for a time longer during the evening, overnight Thursday and very early on Friday.

The crazy thing is that this snow is not connected to a cold front. So in all probability, rain showers will take over perhaps in some areas by Friday morning and last into the day on Friday.

My Seven Day Temperature Forecast

Wet and Chilly

Total Liquid Through Weekend

Total Liquid Through Weekend

The weekend looks damp and cold. We will be in the “warm” sector of a developing low pressure system, meaning forties will be around on Friday and Saturday in portions of the Ozarks.

There are good signals for decent rain development. In fact, the water equivalent for the upcoming two storms will probably exceed one inch.  This will further knock down our drought condition for sure.

A backlash of snow is possible in say western Missouri late Saturday and early Sunday as this system departs.

 

 

Enjoy Today, Snow Coming

 Posted by at 11:45 am on March 19, 2013  Daily Weather Blog  No Responses »
Mar 192013
 

Snow Total "Range"

Snow Total “Range”

Today will be near average for middle March with temperatures in the fifties. It still looks like accumulating snow in the Ozarks on Thursday!

Nice Last Full Day of Winter

Well, astronomically anyway, this is the last day of winter.  Today will be a mild one. I expect high temperatures in the middle to upper fifties with lots of sunshine.

It will turn cooler on Wednesday as a front slips through the Ozarks. Wednesday will drop back down in the forties.

O.K., The Snow!

Snow will fall in the Ozarks on Thursday.  It will be a wet snow with temperatures right at or slightly above freezing. There will be an area that will probably get 4 inches or more.

Beyond these statements. uncertainty remains with regard to placement and totals.  I put my best guess on the Drawing Board this morning.

Whenever a “warm” snow is forecast, the amount of humidity is pretty high and the potential for a wet, heavy snow always exists on the coldest side of the storm system, especially if the storm has a lot of “lift” which this one seems to have. These types of snow are not unusual during March.

Add to this a track which has wobbled around from model run to model run.  This type of uncertainty is demonstrated on the graph which shows an ensemble of computer model snow forecasts. These are all run at the same time with the same data but the conditions are “tweaked” mathematically to see how sensitive the situation is to minor changes.  One model cranks out nearly 10″ for Springfield (green). However, the mean or average is more like 2″.  This is what keeps meteorologist up at night!

This will all start late morning on Thursday.  Rain will be more likely in northwest Arkansas, snow in central Missouri.

7 Day High/Low Forecast

It Gets Better!

This weekend is looking very interesting too.  While it does look like a cold rain will develop on Saturday, the northwest edge of this storm will be another snow producer!  This might be another snowstorm for portions of Kansas and northwest Missouri this weekend. The backlash snow area this system will visit the Ozarks on Sunday

 

Mar 182013
 

Cold Air for the Eastern U.S. Late Week and Weekend

Cold Air for the Eastern U.S. Late Week and Weekend

Today will be chilly for the season in the wake of decent weekend rains for many.  Snow is mentioned in the forecast!

The Rain

Springfield’s rain total for Sunday was 1.37″ which boosted the March total to 3.13″. This is ahead of normal for the month and more precipitation prospects later this week should help to keep it this way.

The highest rain totals were recorded east and north of Springfield.  Portions of the Ozarks picked up well over 2″ of rain.

Today and Tuesday

Not bad days for this time of year especially Tuesday when our high temperature should rise up into the upper fifties.  That would make it, hands down, the warmest day in the forecast!

Today is starting on the dreary side with patches of showers and drizzle in the region.  This should clear up by later today and when it does, fairly mild conditions will prevail.

Cold Shots and Snow

The upper level flow on average over the days after Tuesday will deliver some cold air for the season.  This coming weekend as an example will only see high temperatures in the forties!

My seven day forecast is up!

The next shot of cooler air will arrive late Tuesday making Wednesday colder by at least 10 degrees when compared to Tuesday. This cold air may aid in some snow on Thursday!

The system forecast to produce the snow and rain for the area will swing  to our southwest and south on Thursday.  While temperatures will be “warm”, meaning above freezing, overall temperatures in profile do support snow especially the more north and northeast you live from Springfield on Thursday.

Jet Stream South of Us

Jet Stream South of Us

Way to early to speculate on totals (although there are plenty of computer models which will happily spit out these maps!). It would be tough to get a real meaningful snow this time of year but certainly not impossible!

More cold air arrives in the wake of this snow threat.

 

Mar 172013
 

Hail core on Radar

Hail core on Radar About 3:34 p.m.

A nice little core of hail started down in northern Stone County and headed northeast during the late afternoon.

This passed pretty much over my house right before 4 p.m. The largest I saw was around nickel-size.

Here’s a collection of some hail pictures from folks in the Ozarks:

 

 

 

Here’s a video I took of the storm right before 4 p.m.

Mar 172013
 

Pea Size Hail in Ava, MO (Debbie Wray)

Pea Size Hail in Ava, MO (Debbie Wray)

It has been and still is a wonderful rain across the Ozarks!  There has been a touch of winter mixed into this for a select few of you closer to central Missouri.

Rain Totals

Many of the 24 hour rain reports ending at 7 a.m. this Sunday morning are above a half inch.  A fair area has gotten more than an inch including portions of Hickory, Cedar, Polk and Pulaski Counties.

On the slightly wilder side, some reports of small hail have come in. Ava (pictured) had some pea sized hail this morning.  Also, a touch of winter has been mixed in for folks living far to the north of Springfield. Warsaw reports a dusting of snow on rooftops according to Facebook watcher Diana Wood.  The snow is expected to remain light and not become a road hazard.

Precipitation areas this morning on my Drawing Board.

One good band of rain will continue scoot east today. More bands of showers are forecast to develop later today and evening this evening.

Interesting Pattern

Well, we hit a hot 81° in Springfield just a few days ago but winter weather isn’t over for the Ozarks!

Longer-range computer models continue to insist on an accumulation snow on the far northeastern edge of a weather system by Thursday.

Possible Rain/Snow Areas Thursday Morning

Possible Rain/Snow Areas Thursday Morning

The low is actually dropping southeast over the central Plains meaning we’ll be on the side of the cold air.  But under this pattern, it will be hard for the cold air to dislodge so accumulation snow is a possibility.

Watching as usual. Temperatures will be warm for a snow, at or above freezing for a good portion of the area.

Colder in General

The eighty-degree day was a cruel tease in that the Ozarks is entering a cold pattern for this time of the year.

My seven-day outlook is posted here.