We continue with warm weather, waiting on the approach of more widespread rain and possible severe storms on Thursday and Friday.
This will likely be one of the warmest days of the week. We’ll have a tad more sun and a persistent southerly wind helping us into the lower and middle eighties this afternoon.
More violent weather is expected today out to the west of our area but none of this is expected to be close to the Ozarks for today.
There is a sign that some storms will arrive in the area later tonight. This is not expected to produce much in the way of severe storms.
Thursday and Friday will be more active days in Ozarks for heavier storms as the entire jet stream pattern shifts more to the east. I think storms will begin to break out maybe as early as lunch time on Thursday and be more widespread than all of the previous days. Severe weather is possible with this activity. The forecast for severe storms during the afternoon on Thursday will be highly dependent on small scale features such as cloud decks and cooler outflows from earlier activity. It’s a day where very localized but intense severe storms will be possible.
By Thursday night, a round of storms from the west will probably roll in. This would represent a more organized severe storm threat.
It looks like a threat for damaging winds and hail exists for Friday too. My money would be on a line of storms developing ahead of the cold front for Friday evening and night.
The above mentioned cold front will slow Friday night and Saturday providing us with extended heavy rain chances. We have the potential for widespread 3-5″ rain totals in the Ozarks with much of this falling Friday night and early Saturday.