The Ozarks will see rain and thunder today with some severe storms possible but the bigger day (and night) will be Friday.
On the radar this morning, areas of rain and some thunder are over the Ozarks and coming up out of the southwest. This will keep us damp in some places and with the extensive cloud cover that comes with the rain, a little cooler.
This cloud cover should also keep the air from becoming very unstable, in most areas. That’s the key, to watch the skies to see if sunshine, combined with decent humidity and a strong jet stream, will be able to provide small areas where severe storms might be favored this afternoon. I’ll monitor this throughout the day.
It does look like more organized storms which develop out to our west and southwest will roll into the area later this evening and tonight with the potential for severe storms, probably the best of the day. The Storm Prediction Center has western Missouri in a 5% tornado risk for later this evening with a 2% risk extending as far east as Springfield (percent chance of a tornado within 25 miles of your town). This will likely be adjusted somewhat by 8 a.m. and I’ll “social media” the update.
Friday looks like a repeat except I think the volume will be turned up with regard to severe weather and very heavy rain. Once again, the main threat would be during the evening hours. Severe storm erupting along a slowly moving cold front and out west near the dry line in Oklahoma will begin to approach the Ozarks by evening. The severe threat will transform to a heavy rain threat through the nighttime on Friday into Saturday morning. The inserted rain outlook from the Weather Prediction Center shows the potential for widespread 3-5″ rain totals between now and Saturday with much of that forecast to fall Friday night and Saturday morning. A flash flood watch is in effect for the Missouri portion of the Ozarks.
The weekend will begin to improve on Saturday and the rain bands slip south and high pressure begins to clear the Ozarks out. We’ll get cooler and less humid air into the region. Sunday looks great with highs in the seventies. Monday morning cool as lows dip close to fifty.
More showers and storm appear on tap by the middle of next week.