May 302013
 

SPC Outline for Possible Watch

SPC Outline for Possible Watch

Stalled cool outflow areas will play a role in storm development today along with an increase in instability.

Storms which could fire this afternoon in southeastern Kansas and northeastern Nebraska immediately ahead of a batch of cool air left behind from overnight storms have a chance to become severe quickly.  The air out ahead of this cool air batch is destabilizing thanks to breaks in the clouds and the movement of more unstable northward immediately ahead of this feature. Computer models show this area to have increasing unstable air through early afternoon.  Additionally, low level rotation parameters are running pretty high from eastern Kansas into western Missouri.  Computer models continue to maintain these values into the early afternoon hours as well.

So I would watch any storms in northeast Oklahoma or southeast Kansas which could gain a foothold in this environment to become severe.  Radar as of this writing at 11:40 a.m.  is showing some possible development south of Parsons, Kansas and over northeastern Oklahoma. The area of concern is outlined on the Drawing Board.

Also, a general area of increasingly unstable air is developing from Springfield eastward into the Ozarks. Isolated cell currently developing would probably continue to strengthen become a severe threat by later this afternoon.

As I hit “publish”, a new discussion for a possible watch has been posted!

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