Steady Near Normal Weather

 Posted by at 7:16 am on June 21, 2013  Daily Weather Blog  No Responses »
Jun 212013
 

Weather Map This Morning

Weather Map This Morning

As we passed into astronomical summer overnight (no real bearing on day to day weather of course!), we will step up temperatures a bit in what will resemble a very normal pattern for June.

Temperatures will average right around ninety for the next several days as southerly winds return a stay with us for an extended period.  This will also keep humidity on the high side although it won’t be our of the ordinary for this time of year.

In the upper atmosphere, a ridge of high pressure will develop. This encourages a hotter pattern for us. we will average in the upper eighties to around ninety for today and Saturday. For much of next week, lower nineties will common.

Rain chances will be hard to come by with no fronts or strong disturbances in our area. But with unstable air and as yet unforeseen small disturbances, the chance for afternoon rain is very low but not zero over the next few days especially.

 

 

 

Jun 202013
 

today

Forecast for Today

Today might be the best chance for rain in the Ozarks for a while as temperatures heat up and fronts avoid the area.

I’m watching a small set of disturbances approach the Ozarks from the west today. This coupled with a weak front warm front may spark more showers and storms. I expect the most organized rain and storm over Kansas today.

Otherwise, the Ozarks will find itself in a warm, humid southerly flow for several days in a row, lasting into nearly all of next week.  Our average high will be around 91 degrees through this period, just a touch above what one would expect for this time of year.

There might be an isolated storm risk on a few of these days. Saturday comes to mind.  A “backdoor” cool front might come close to the area by late week, spreading additional showers and storms to at least a portion of the Ozarks.

 

Jun 192013
 

Rain Projection for Thursday

Rain Projection for Thursday

The next few days will feature a small increase in temperature and a small chance for a shower.

The weather in the Ozarks will be fine for June over the next few days. Our highs will climb into the middle and upper eighties over the next few days.

The best chance for rain and thunder in the area is tomorrow as a warm front slides northward through the area.  It will be the focus for some more shower and storm clusters.  Most of the activity should be northwest of Springfield proper.

Friday through Monday looks like a breezy and warm period for the Ozarks. We should average around ninety-degrees each of the days.  There are slight hints of showers and storms over the eastern Ozarks on Saturday, we’ll see if this pans out.

Otherwise the next best chance for rain will be early next week as a cool front tries to approach the Ozarks.

 

Jun 182013
 

Upper Level Winds, Clouds and Rain This A.M.

Upper Level Winds, Clouds and Rain This A.M.

There is still rain in the forecast but mostly the weather appears to be drying out and heating up over the next week or so.

Morning lows were chilly by recent standards today, reaching the upper fifties in some spots.  This will translate to a high in the low to middle eighties later today.

We are in the clear for today.  There is a flow from the northwest aloft and a weak disturbance up in Nebraska which is forcing me to throw a small chance for rain in the forecast very late tonight and on Wednesday.

Additional chances for showers and storms exist on Thursday. This could be the best chance of rain in the forecast.  A warm front traveling back north through the Ozarks is the culprit.

After the front swings north, a warmer south wind will propel our temperature pattern into average highs around ninety and lows around seventy starting on Friday and lasting into at least the weekend.

 

Jun 172013
 

Wednesday Weather Map

Wednesday Weather Map

One system is fading this morning but other areas of rain/storms will pop up later today.

The large bowing line of storm seen on morning radar composites will miss the Ozarks. Rain on its northern end will slide into northwest Arkansas and southwest Missouri before fading later this morning.

The clouds generated by this storm complex will be around most of the morning.  Once they begin to thin, the sun will work to increase the instability of the air over the Ozarks by later this afternoon.  More scattered storm cannot be ruled out as a result.  I believe their rain punch will be a little less than the previous few days!

Generally, a weak extension of high pressure will clear things out for us beginning tonight.  Tuesday and Wednesday should be mostly dry.

The upper level pattern starts to favor more decisive southerly wind flow over the area beginning late in the week.  This should providing us with a return of pool weather as nineties are in the forecast for this coming weekend.

 

 

Jun 162013
 

Humidity: High and Deep!

Humidity: High and Deep!

Yesterday’s extreme but localized heavy rain in southern Springfield likely isn’t probable (but not impossible! See blog.) but more areas of heavy rain are possible, perhaps a bit more east today than yesterday.

It looks like the heavier rain totals will more likely develop under or near the area of the dashed line on the enclosed map.

A weak cool front will drop into the Ozarks overnight.  This will eventually start to organize the rain more to the south of Springfield. Also, complexes of rain and storms which develop out west of us on Monday will have to be watched to see if they track over a portion of the area.

Overall, a weak area of high pressure will try to clear us up a bit for Tuesday and Wednesday.  However, I have a feeling that the high behind this front isn’t really up to the task and that more random showers may creep back into the forecast.

As you might expect, temperatures will have a hard time warming on any given day due to extensive cloud cover and rain areas. Expect eighties for the rest of the forecast.

Rain Projection from the Weather Prediction Center for Today and Monday

Rain Projection from the Weather Prediction Center for Today and Monday

 

 

 

 

Jun 162013
 

Radar Estimate of Rain Late Saturday Morning, 6/15/2013

Radar Estimate of Rain Late Saturday Morning, 6/15/2013

A very small area of southern Springfield received 9″+ of rain in only a few hours during the late morning hours of Saturday, June 15, 2013. This caused extreme flash flooding.

The rain storm caused the Springfield National Weather Service office to issue its first Flash Flood Emergency for the city. This is a special category above and beyond the Flash Flood Warning, reserved for times when a combination of extreme flooding and a major population areas overlap.

The enclosed map indicates the distribution of the rain fairly well but is off on the rain totals. This is not surprising given the intensity of the event.

In the hours leading up to this rain “event”, I remember commenting on the random nature of expected rain and thunder areas expected and that somewhat heavier rain might be expected.  It was a hard forecast to nail down because unlike the approach of a front which has a definite structure and somewhat more predictable movement, the features controlling the rain burst on Saturday were much more subtle.

One of those features was what is called an outflow boundary, a mini cool front of sorts which is produced by the cool air rushing out of a thunderstorm or storms.  On Saturday morning, such a outflow was traveling south over southern Missouri and eventually passed just south of Springfield during the late morning hours.

Some outflow areas are good at providing a sort of gentle push up in the atmosphere and can actively generate rain and/or storms behind them. I commented on this during Saturday mornings’ “One Minute Weather” discussion!

On Saturday morning, this lifting of the air persisted.  At my house, I heard of lot of thunder and witnessed cloud-to-ground bolts. Since I had just developed a new lightning image feature on this web site, I was actively warning outdoor folks about the lightning and encouraging them to check the map.

Flooding Near Weaver Road (Jason Harlow)

Flooding Near Weaver Road (Jason Harlow)

It rained, the rain got heavier but it was all within what I thought was possible on that morning.

There were other contributing factors for heavier than normal rain on this morning. The jet stream winds or overall steering currents were on the slow side. This meant that storms were going to move slowly on this day. All else remaining equal, a slow moving storm will always dump heavier rain. It simply has more time to do so over any given spot!

Also, the humidity over a deep layer of the atmosphere was high in a “plume” which arced from Texas , over the Ozarks and on up into the Midwest.  These “plumes” of higher humidity lead to rain and storms which have higher rain efficiency.

Finally, the ultimate slow moving storm is one which doesn’t move at all!  This is what happened on the south side of Springfield as a storm with a high rainfall rate parked over one location. As a result, the rain totals went through the roof! (literally and figuratively)

By the way, stationary movement is more likely during the summer months when upper level winds are much slower. It becomes possible for a balance between these weak winds and the development of new storm cells to be reached so that the net propagation of a storm is nearly zero. It doesn’t move!

This leads me to the next point and a question, “Will a weather forecaster ever think that 9″ of rain is possible in only a few hours time?” Answer: possible, maybe. Forecast? Probably not.

Near Cardinal Toward Woodhaven (Linden Mueller)

Near Cardinal Toward Woodhaven (Linden Mueller)

This is because events like this occur in very small scales of space and time.  They are controlled by smaller scale features that are either missed or under-forecast.  The computer models we so often reference are not always going to see these features.  Even if the models were capable, we don’t have enough detailed observations often enough. The models would also have to be run over a smaller area to pick up the details needed.  All of this is possible but we’re not there yet!

 

 

 

Jun 152013
 

Radar/Lightning at 7:40 a.m. (click for latest image)

Radar/Lightning at 7:40 a.m. (click for latest image)

It’s hard to nail down when roving bands of rain and thunder will occur this weekend. It looks like the best chance is late Sunday and early Monday.

Some non-severe storms are rumbling around Lake of the Ozarks this morning.  Lake interests can check out a new image on this web site which shows current lightning activity.

This activity has left a cool outflow boundary or two in the Ozarks. These may help to promote additional rain and storm areas later today.  I don’t expect much in the way of severe activity with these storms as the wind shear is pretty weak.  But a gust of wind and some small hail might be connected to some of the stronger storms. Some locally heavy downpours might pop up as well.

The rain pattern this weekend is full of somewhat random clusters of showers and storms.  However, a cool front will help to organize the rain activity by Sunday evening and into early Monday.

Rain Projection Through Monday

Rain Projection Through Monday

In fact, the general pattern of rainfall for today, Sunday and Monday, collectively, is pretty healthy with much of the Ozarks expected to pick up a three day total of over an inch and a half of rain!

High temperatures will vary with the rain clusters. I think middle and upper eighties are likely both Saturday and Sunday.

The weather behind the front will be nice on late Monday and into at least Tuesday.  More showers and storms may come back along with the return of warmer air by the middle and late portion of the week.

 

 

Jun 142013
 

Morning Upper Air Flow./louds/Radar

Morning Upper Air Flow./louds/Radar

In the long range charts, typical June weather, both in terms of rain chances and temperature, will unfold over the weekend and all of next week.

Today, high pressure is sliding away, allowing southerly winds to take over. This will be the case on Saturday too. As a result, our temperatures will climb a tad. I expect highs on both days to be in the middle or perhaps the upper eighties.

Rain chances do exist this weekend. On Saturday, the chance is low with perhaps an isolated shower popping up. Sunday and into Monday is our best shot at rain.  I believe we have a chance for 1″ totals in the area buy the night Monday night arrives.

It looks like a new bubble of high pressure will work it’s way in for Tuesday and Wednesday providing slightly cooler temperatures.

More rain may develop late Wednesday and Thursday along a warm front.

Total Rain Expected Over the Next Five Days

Total Rain Expected Over the Next Five Days

All in all, June should provide us with weak cool fronts which only barely slide through the Ozarks with rain chances and highs in the eighties and that is exactly what is in the forecast!

 

Cool Front, Rain Chances

 Posted by at 7:09 am on June 13, 2013  Daily Weather Blog  No Responses »
Jun 132013
 

High Pressure Nosing In!

High Pressure Nosing In!

Today’s weather will provide the Ozarks with a refreshing change to cooler and less humid air!

A run of ninety-degree highs has come to an end and while we’ll take a crack at that reading again perhaps over the weekend, clouds and a few showers and storms will likely put a stop to it.

Today and Friday should be nice days. I’m still eyeing a slight possibility of a shower sliding in from the northwest on Friday.

But the chances for scattered rain and thunderstorm start to increase over the weekend.

The first chances may come on Saturday with a weak upper level disturbance.

Better chances for rain will be attached to another front which is forecast to stretch across the area beginning on Sunday and sticking around until Tuesday.

Parts of the Ozarks could pick up more than an inch of rain with this system .