2013 July » Ozarks Weather

Muggy, Warmer, More Rain Ahead

Posted by Ted Keller at 9:36 am on July 31, 2013 Daily Weather Blog No Responses »

Jul 312013

July Precipitation in Springfield

After a foggy start, the day will warm and with not much wind and high humidity, it will feel “close”!

The clouds will slowly break today. Temperatures will respond by climbing into the middle eighties. I don’t see a meaning full chance for showers for today.

The same can be said for Thursday. A tad warmer with more sunshine is on tap with readings ending up in the upper eighties.

Beginning on Friday, showers and storms will return to the Ozarks. This will mark the beginning of a period featuring more showers and storms that will last into the weekend.

Severe Storm Outlook for Friday

As will all of these summer patterns featuring flow from the northwest, it is hard to pin down the exact arrival of shower and storm clusters. There is a slight risk for some severe storms as outlined by the Storm Prediction Center for Friday.

The overall pattern of wet weather is shown in the latest 7 day total precipitation forecast. This target is moving: it was centered more over the Ozarks on Tuesday, now it is shifted more northeast. I expect more adjustments as we get closer to Friday and the weekend.

The extended rain chances mean temperatures will have trouble heating to above normal.

Wet Period Ahead, Staying Slightly Cool Into August

Posted by Ted Keller at 5:55 am on July 30, 2013 Daily Weather Blog No Responses »

Jul 302013

Precipitation Probability August 4-8

Over the next seven days, a few rounds of rain and storms will visit the Ozarks with decent rains. Temperatures will stay at or below normal for the most part.

Radar Rain Estimate

This morning’s rain totals were impressive for a portion of the Ozarks. The band of heaviest rain came in from southeast Kansas and made a beeline for Springfield and Greene County. Widespread 2-3″ totals have been reported in Greene County. I inserted a radar estimation of rain as of 4:50 a.m.

The main batch of rain is slipping southeast away from Springfield. It will be capable of producing several inches of rain in its wake. Additional patches of rain can be expected through the day over much of the Ozarks.

We’ll take a break from rain on Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures on these two days will attempt to climb to near normal highs in the upper eighties to near ninety.

More rain batches may affect the Ozarks as early as Thursday night and into Friday.

The additional rain is part of a pattern of enhanced rainfall setting up over the central U.S. starting later this week and lasting into the weekend and beyond. The exact timing of these rain chances is somewhat hard to pin down.

Heavy Rain For Some

Posted by Ted Keller at 7:29 am on July 29, 2013 Daily Weather Blog No Responses »

Jul 292013

Radar Simulation for 4 a.m.Tuesday

Heavy rain will strike a portion of the Ozarks tonight and Tuesday.

It looks like the emphasis will be on areas north of Springfield. Computer models are coming into better agreement on placing this heavy rain in this area by late tonight and into Tuesday.

The rain will amount to several inches. While it looks to be more north of Springfield, trends will be monitored later today to try and nail down a more precise location. As it stands now, the two-day rain outlook from the Weather Prediction Center looks good.

The rest of the week looks warmer. I think the Ozarks will attempt to make it up to near normal temperatures near ninety by the end of the week.

Projection of Average Below Normal Temperatures in the Beginning of August

Having stated this, we are generally speaking going to stay cool for the season. What’s working in our favor to stave off excessive heat is a parade of small disturbances which continue to roll over the top of any hot air bubbles which try to take hold over the central U.S. This type of flow will continue for at least the next week. I included the 8-14 day temperature projection (August 5-11) which shows the cool air “bubble” forecast for the Central U.S.

Cool and Wet to End July 2013

Posted by Ted Keller at 9:58 am on July 28, 2013 Daily Weather Blog No Responses »

Jul 282013

Weather Prediction Center Rain Projection Through Tuesday A.M.

Periods of showers with heavier rain and a few storms will visit the Ozarks over the next few days.

As shown, parts of western Missouri are in an area forecast to receive 3-4″ of rain through combined areas of showers and storms rolling through. This forecast ends Tuesday morning.

The first portion of this is sliding into Missouri and Arkansas this morning. A band of steady light to occasionally moderate rain is moving into southwest Missouri from the northwest. The leading edge is running into drier air and eroding away but it should provide Springfield with some very light rain into the early afternoon.

More areas of rain and storms will be approaching from the same direction over the next few days. The heaviest batch looks like it will affect us by Monday evening and last into the day on Tuesday.

As you might guess, temperatures won’t warm much with clouds and rain in the forecast. This mornings lows are a good example. Record lows were broken in Missouri, Iowa and Nebraska this morning. I have the ones I know about plotted on The Drawing Board.

We’ll spend most of the upcoming few days with daytime temperatures in the seventies.

It looks like the Ozarks will make a run at near normal temperatures by the end of the week. However, a least a few more cool fronts of different strengths will affect the area over the next seven days and beyond.

Needed Rain, Nice Weekend!

Posted by Ted Keller at 7:04 am on July 26, 2013 Daily Weather Blog No Responses »

Jul 262013

“Red Sky in Morning” Ava (Debbie Wray)

We can always use a steady, widespread rain in summer and that’s exactly what most of the Ozarks will receive today.

The rain will total up between .25″ and .75″ generally over the Ozarks with some local 1″ plus totals with some of the heavier storm areas. While there will be some lightning/thunder with today’s rain, no severe weather is expected.

The rain will clear out in time for the weekend. For the last weekend in July, the weather will turn out quite uncharacteristic. I expect maximum temperatures to stay in the seventies on Saturday and barely clear eighty on Sunday.

Skies will be mainly clear. Enjoy!

Accumulated Rain Projection Next Seven Days

Another shower or storm area is possible on Monday. Still another could arrive later next week. Collectively, the rain totals look quite nice if the projections from the Weather Prediction Center hold up.

Friday Rain, Cool Summer Weekend

Posted by Ted Keller at 6:34 am on July 25, 2013 Daily Weather Blog No Responses »

Jul 252013

Rain Projection Through Saturday.

A swath of heavy rain will affect a portion of the Ozarks followed by a very cool weekend.

Today, the air will be a tad less humid over the Ozarks. Temperatures are running slightly below what you would expect for late July. Maximum temperatures should reach the middle eighties here in Springfield. The day will start clear and then a deck of clouds will begin to roll in from the west later this afternoon.

The clouds are connected to the next rain for the Ozarks. This system will concentrate most of the rain south and southwest of the Ozarks. This means that areas of northwest Arkansas have the highest potential rain chances and totals on Friday.

Because of the large rain area, Friday’s highs will stop in the seventies over much of the Ozarks.

Computer Forecast of Temperatures 1 p.m. Sunday

This weekend (the last in July) looks cool by summer standards! I expect seventies most of the day on both Saturday and Sunday. Lows in the fifties are possible both weekend mornings. All in all, nice stuff, and a far cry from the weather last year.

Cooler Days Ahead

Posted by Ted Keller at 7:23 am on July 24, 2013 Daily Weather Blog No Responses »

Jul 242013

Storm Blow-Ups Yesterday East of Springfield

We are starting a cooling trend today which will last into the weekend and beyond.

Yesterday, storms hit some areas east and south of Springfield. They produced heavy rains a some high winds. They also contributed to a nice rush of cool outflow which overtook the metro area from the east during the early evening.

Radar Estimate of Rainfall

Rainfall was spotty but generous. The radar estimate map shows who got the best rains.

As for today, the wind has shifted to the north and northeast and the cooling has started! I don’t expect any rain in the area today. Highs temperatures today will stop in the middle and upper eighties. Expect about the same on Thursday.

By Friday, another ripple in the atmosphere will support rain and storms. This features is slipping more south with time and it appears as if northwestern Arkansas has the best chance for additional meaningful rain (they are in most need).

This weekend looks wonderful! Highs in the lower eighties and lows near sixty as a general rule. Maybe a very slight shower risk Saturday evening.

Monday could produce more generous rain in the Ozarks.

Rain Vs. Drought

Posted by Ted Keller at 7:17 am on July 23, 2013 Climate No Responses »

Jul 232013

A batch of decent rain tonight coupled with more later this week and weekend could be just what the doctor ordered for portions of the Ozarks.

I put together this slider to easily compare the latest drought index monitor with a projection of rain over the next five days.

You can check the latest drought monitor here, the latest precipitation forecasts here:

More Storm Clusters, Decent Rains, Cooler

Posted by Ted Keller at 7:03 am on July 23, 2013 Daily Weather Blog No Responses »

Jul 232013

Slight Storm Risk Area for Today

I’ll be watching for more clusters of rain and storms flowing in from the northwest today and tomorrow.

Severe storms are in the forecast for today. High wind and hail are the main threats today. It looks like the storms will organize better by later today and tonight, coming in with a line from the northwest and north. I’ll watch for developments during the day.

Rain Projection Today/Early Wednesday

A weak front is sagging southward today and Wednesday. It will continue to focus the storms and the rain. The latest projection suggests a broad 1-2″ rain swath is possible from the activity today and early tomorrow. (image insert).

But the rain doesn’t end with this round. It looks like more is on the way later in the week. Projections include 3-4″ of total rainfall for the next five days in an area which includes southern Missouri and northern Arkansas. It could be just what the doctor ordered as those areas have been the driest this summer.

It will also be cooler! There may be a day over the weekend in which our temperatures stay in the seventies! Lows will fall into the lower sixties.

Great Rain Chances Ahead

Posted by Ted Keller at 8:20 am on July 22, 2013 Daily Weather Blog No Responses »

Jul 222013

Slight Risk of Severe Storms Today

We’ve got some decent rain shots coming up over the next few days. Welcome news!

Also today, much of the Ozarks is under a risk of severe weather, primarily wind damage and small hail. This would mostly apply to storms which form later this afternoon and evening.

As for the severe storms, more are expected to develop and/or move out of the northwest today. The air over Kansas is forecast to become quite unstable today. Also, generally, the overall pattern of jet stream winds favors an increase in speed over the next few days. This will help to organize storms.

I would expected damaging winds to be the main threat (hopefully no more “surprise” tornadoes!) from this storms. I’ll be watching for small-scale details today and update the Ozarks accordingly.

Rain Projection Next Five Days

The rain situation is looking very promising for us through the week. Clusters of generous, rain-giving storms will be travel from the northwest toward the Ozarks. It’s just about impossible to give you exact timing of these rain areas but the overall effect will be a nice five day rain potential. The latest rain projection from the Weather Prediction Center is included.

This is of course well rain. Much of the Ozarks slipped into drought conditions, especially in northern Arkansas. This might just nip that in in the bud!

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