Aug 162013
 

Looking Great on Saturday!

Looking Great on Saturday!

It’s shaping up to be a fantastic weekend in the Ozarks!

This morning, a small deck of clouds is sweeping through the Ozarks keeping the low temperatures just a tad warmer than the previous morning.  We had a low of 55° in Springfield yesterday morning and West Plains dropped to 50°, breaking a low temperature record by one degree.

It’s been an amazing run of cool weather.  Our string of below normal days stands at 23 now with more to come.

This weekend will be just a touch warmer as high temperatures in the eighties return by Sunday.  The trend toward warmer temperatures will continue into next week when I expect some upper eighties in the Ozarks.  The normal high, which peaks at ninety in July, is starting to fall and in fact drops from 90° to 87° by the end of the month.

I don’t see significant chances for rain in the forecast.

 

 

Aug 152013
 

Computer Temperature Trends

Computer Temperature Trends

Very cool temperatures for the season continue to press into the Ozarks!

Morning lows dropped into the fifties everywhere in the Ozarks this morning.  There were likely some upper forties hanging out in a few places.

The unseasonably cool weather will stretch into the weekend. I expect lows in the fifties for a few more mornings as daytime highs stay in the seventies.

There is a weak weather system which could send a light shower or sprinkle our way on Friday.

The weekend looks great! The Ozarks will climb back into the eighties generally, especially on Sunday. I don’t see any meaningful rain chances.

A warming trend is expected starting Sunday and lasting into next week.  However, extreme hot weather isn’t showing up in the seven day forecast.  We will probably get back closer to normal by the end of next week.

Possible Tracks for Either "Erin" or "Fernand"

Possible Tracks for Either “Erin” or “Fernand”

 

Tropical Activity

Tropical Activity

The National Hurricane Center named “Erin” this morning way out in the eastern Atlantic. Another area of possible development is in the  western Caribbean will affect the Yucatan Peninsula today and perhaps enter the Gulf of Mexico this weekend.   The next name on the list is “Fernand”

Cool Weather Pressing In

 Posted by at 7:09 am on August 14, 2013  Daily Weather Blog  No Responses »
Aug 142013
 

Morning Weather Map

Morning Weather Map

Our run of days recording below normal temperatures in Springfield is 21 and counting!

I expect this run will be extended to near 28 days.  The latest batch of cool weather courtesy of high pressure brought temperatures down into the 30’s in Wisconsin this morning and will be responsible for a few upper forties in Missouri over the next few mornings.

Our record low temperatures for Thursday and Friday morning are 49 and 48 degrees which should stay in the books.

A disturbance sliding southeast my bring a few sprinkles to the area late Thursday and into Friday.  The magnitude of the rain will be nothing close to some of the downpours we’ve experienced over the last few weeks.

Speaking of rain, Springfield has measured 10 inches on the dot of rain since July 26th.

Rain Diminishing, Cooler Weather

 Posted by at 6:08 am on August 13, 2013  Daily Weather Blog  No Responses »
Aug 132013
 

Temperature Trends Next Few Days

Temperature Trends Next Few Days

All flash flood watches have been lifted for the Ozarks.  High pressure will come in to clear us out and cool us down!

Morning radar images show the heaviest rain down in Oklahoma and Arkansas in and around I-40. This trend will persist thus the flash flood watch has been lifted for the area. Meanwhile, other light showers are drifting in from Kansas.  These will affect areas mainly south of Springfield later this morning.

An area of high pressure will continue to press in over the next few days. This will make our weather even cooler than it has already been!  I expect high temperatures to stay in the seventies on both Wednesday and Thursday.  At the same time, low will drop solidly into the fifties.  Chilly but records should stay intact.

Overall, the forecast suggests cooler than normal weather will persist through the weekend and into early next week.

An upper level disturbance may bring showers back into the forecast by Thursday night and Friday.

The weekend

 

 

More Heavy Rain for the Ozarks

 Posted by at 6:36 am on August 12, 2013  Daily Weather Blog  No Responses »
Aug 122013
 

Flash Flood Watch Area

Flash Flood Watch Area

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for all of the Ozarks for today and much of Tuesday.

A very active radar screen is evident out over Kansas this morning with lots of rain and storms areas.  This activity is moving southeast and will begin affecting areas of western Missouri by later today.

While everyone will have a chance for rain and storms today, it appears the greatest chance for heavy rain will be in extreme southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas in the area outlined by the Flash Flood Watch.

Latest computer model guidance suggests that a large area of heavy rainfall will develop in the watch area later tonight and early on Tuesday morning.  This will all have to be monitored carefully over the next couple of days to see exactly where the heaviest rain will set up.

Any severe weather with this latest rain-maker should be confined to areas west of the Ozarks in Kansas and Oklahoma.

Rain Projection Through Tuesday

Rain Projection Through Tuesday

By late Tuesday, the rain areas should move on and a weak but effective area of high pressure will push into the Ozarks. This high will hang out for the rest of the week.  This feature will ensure that we keep very cool temperatures for this time of the year in the forecast. I have a few days with highs only in the seventies later this week!

A weak cut-low low aloft is being suggested by some computer models for the weekend. The effect of this would be to keep the cooler weather into the weekend as well!

Springfield is in a run of below normal temperatures.  It started on July 26th and as of yesterday the run of days stands at 19. I expected to add as least 7 more days to this run including today!

 

 

Aug 102013
 

Rain Projection for Monday

Rain Projection for Monday

The rain is slipping more south with time.  Additional rain chances need to be watched for Monday.

After some more areas of flash flooding overnight, the weather will generally be drier over the Ozarks this weekend.

A flash flood emergency was issued for the Conway, MO area as a cluster of rain and storms dumped an estimated 2-3″ of rain in the wee hours of the morning.  Another hard hit area was northern Howell County.

The rain has slipped into northern Arkansas and will continue that trek through the day.

The Ozarks will see a drying out for the rest of today and Sunday as a weak area of high pressure noses its way in.

The next batch of rain will slide in from the northwest on Monday. This looks to be setting up more west and southwest of Springfield.  Areas of extreme southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas will need to watch for heavy rain potential on Monday.

Meanwhile, our cool stretch of weather continues!  All of the days in August have been below normal in Springfield. The streak actually started back on July 24th.  I see no opportunity for an above normal day over the next seven days. In fact, a mid-week cool front will supply us with more seventy-degree days and perhaps some fifty-degree low temperature mornings!

 

Showers, Some Heavier Downpours

 Posted by at 7:31 am on August 9, 2013  Daily Weather Blog  No Responses »
Aug 092013
 

Radar Snopshot

Radar Snopshot

Showers and patches of heavy rain will continue through today especially and into part of the weekend.

Even though the Ozarks didn’t wake up to flash flooding this morning, it doesn’t mean the threat is reduced!  The atmosphere in the Ozarks is still primed with any showers and rain areas that do develop becoming very efficient at producing lots of rain in a short amount of time.

The overall pattern still features a stalled front with slow moving west to east winds aloft and high humidity through a deep layer of the atmosphere.  This features has slipped south over the past day and this trend will continue over the weekend.  The deep layer of humid air is forecast to ease somewhat over the weekend…good news.

Forecast Surface Map for Thursday

Forecast Surface Map for Thursday

Also good news is what appears to be a stronger flow out of the northwest setting up starting on Wednesday. This would drive a cool front through the Ozarks with a high pressure bubble pushing into the Great Lakes states by late week. This would indeed shut down the “rain train” in the Ozarks!

Whether it has been persistent clouds/rain or cool fronts, we have been cool!  Yesterday was the 16th day straight of below normal temperatures for Springfield.  This streak will likely be extended another seven days starting with

Springfield High/Low Past 16 Days

Springfield High/Low Past 16 Days

today.

Aug 082013
 

Roaring River Gage Reading at 5:30 a.m.

Roaring River Gage Reading at 5:30 a.m.

The area of heavy flooding rain has shifted south as of the early hours of this Thursday morning.

Flash flood emergencies are in effect for Hollister, Roaring River State Park and other areas of McDonald, Barry and southern Stone Counties. Additional flash flood concerns exists in portions of northern Arkansas including Boone and Carroll Counties.

Just over 6.5″ of rain has been logged at the Branson Airport overnight (still raining).  Much of this fell in a two hour period.  This rush of water flowed north along Turkey Creek into Hollister. The water rose rapidly there, several RV’s were reportedly washed away and the situation is still unfolding.

Meanwhile, the river gage on the Roaring River in the park of the same name in Barry County swelled to 8.31 feet as of 5:30 a,m. and is guaranteed to rise much more as another round of very heavy rain is about to impact that area as of this writing (6:30 am).

Radar and Flash Flood Warnings at 6:30 a.m.

Radar and Flash Flood Warnings at 6:30 a.m.

The heavy rain will continue all day!  Please stay safe. I’ll have more timely updates on Twitter and Facebook throughout the day.

 

Another Day, More Flooding

 Posted by at 5:06 pm on August 7, 2013  Daily Weather Blog  No Responses »
Aug 072013
 

hackbarth_jerome_flood

Interstate 44 Underwater

More flash flooding struck a portion of the Ozarks overnight.

It’s been wild again in areas northeast of Springfield.  The Little Piney Creek and Gasconade River received the lion’s share of torrential rains late last night and early this morning.

Radar rain estimates and ground measurements verify a large area of 6-8″ of rain over portions of Maries, Miller and Phelps Counties.

The river rain gage at Jerome for the Gasconade River reached a record level late this morning.  As of late this afternoon, it sits at 31.81 feet. This surpasses the previous record established in December of 1982 and is higher than the historic flood of 2008.  Also, almost a year to this date, the river at this location was near historic lows, more than 31 feet lower than it is now!

River Gage at Jerome, MO

River Gage at Jerome, MO

The Little Piney Creek in Newburg went crazy this morning too.  It peaked at 15.22 feet, causing evacuations in Newburg.

All of this water caused the Gasconade to flow over Interstate 44 today causing massive back-ups.

The real question is: how much more will we get?  Well the forecast is not encouraging!

The latest rainfall projection from the Weather Prediction Center calls for widespread, average totals exceeding 3″ over much of southwest Missouri over the next three days.

A front dropping south into Missouri will help to perpetuate the rain chances by stalling and allowing more rain areas to form and spread from west to east over the next few days.

Weather Prediction Center Rain Forecast

Weather Prediction Center Rain Forecast

With the front around on Thursday and a slight increase in jet stream winds, there is a possibility of some severe storms.  This will be controlled largely by how rain and storm areas evolve later tonight.

Also, today marks the 15th day in a row of below normal temperatures in Springfield.  That run should continue for quite a few more days.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Flash Flooding Threat Continues

 Posted by at 7:20 am on August 6, 2013  Daily Weather Blog  No Responses »
Aug 062013
 

Radar Rain Estimation and Flooding Highlights

Radar Rain Estimation and Flooding Highlights

Major flash flooding occurred in portions of Pulaski and Texas Counties (and some nearby areas) when at least 4-6″ of rain fell quickly overnight. I have inserted a video tour of what happen (recorded around 6:30 a.m.) below. NOTE: I-44 is now re-opened!

The major area of rain is still impacting areas east of Springfield. It is mostly moving out but areas of along east highway 60 out of Springfield will experience another expansion of rain over the next few hours.

Projected Rainfall from the Weather Prediction Center

Projected Rainfall from the Weather Prediction Center

The rain isn’t over!  Several more rounds are expected over the next few days.  These have been mostly nocturnal systems but not all of them!  Since the ground is now saturated in many areas, less rain will be required to cause flash flooding.  I’ll report what’s coming!