Hurricane Danny 8/21/2015

 Posted by at 7:58 am on August 21, 2015  Headlines, Slideshows  No Responses »
Aug 212015

Compact Hurricane Danny is swirling along in the central Atlantic and is doing pretty much what forecasters thought it would do.

At a category one storm, Danny has estimated winds of 74-95 mph.  It is still heading to the west-northwest.  On this pace, Danny will affect the northern Leeward Islands by late Sunday.

Danny is fighting an uphill battle as it heads west.  It will encounter drier air through a greater depth of the atmosphere.  Also, stronger winds in the upper atmosphere (shear) will begin to affect this storm.  Also, interaction with the the terrain features of Puerto Rico may also disrupt Danny.  For all of these reasons, the official forecast has Danny weakening to a tropical storm by Sunday.


Some Showers This Weekend

 Posted by at 6:11 am on August 21, 2015  Daily Weather Blog, Headlines  No Responses »
Aug 212015

8-21-2015 6-09-41 AMThe threat for rain looms this weekend but I do see lots of dry hours too.

Even today, a few light showers may slide into areas of southwest Missouri. The chances for rain today are pretty small and anything that does fall would be light.  I do expect a mix of sun and clouds in the Ozarks today.

On Saturday, pop-up afternoon showers and a few thunderstorms will be on tap. These look most likely in the afternoon and in areas from Springfield eastward.

On Sunday, another cool front will swing through the Ozarks by late afternoon.  This should produce more widespread coverage on rain and a few thunderstorms.  I don’t see a great signal for widespread severe storms with this front.

For all of the next week, it’s back to business as usual with warm days, cool night and low humidity!

Aug 202015

8-20-2015 5-01-44 AMIt’s a real treat to talk about cool weather in August and my forecast has lots of it!

Now I love summer temperatures too (you can have the high humidity of course!) but it is nice to take a break.

The jet stream flow for the next seven days favors a series of cool fronts passing through the Ozarks. The first of these came through yesterday and our cool morning has been the result.

Temperatures this morning are in the lower fifties with some upper forties being reported.

The high temperatures will average right around 81° for the next four days.  There’s nothing higher than 83° in the seven day forecast!

We do have additional rain chances which happen to time out on the weekend. The first showers and storms may show up as early as Friday night.


Tropical Storm Danny, 8/19/15

 Posted by at 12:54 pm on August 19, 2015  Headlines  No Responses »
Aug 192015

Tropical Storm Danny is way out in the Atlantic today and might get a tad stronger over the next few days.

First of all, Danny is about 3000 miles from Florida so there is no immediate threat to the U.S. from this storm unless you count Puerto Rico!

The official forecast from the National Hurricane Center has this tropical storm strengthening to a category one hurricane over the next few days.  The track will almost certainly be to the west-northwest.

Danny is going to run into two issues which may weaken it. One, there is a lot of dry air (yellow in the water vapor image) which tends to snuff out tropical systems.

The second might be interaction with terrain if indeed it survives to Puerto Rico.  Mountains on some of the larger Caribbean islands can break the low pressure circulation up on these type of storms.

I’ll wait a few days to see if Danny can hold together and then type up another update.



Rain and Cool Today

 Posted by at 5:56 am on August 19, 2015  Daily Weather Blog, Headlines  No Responses »
Aug 192015

8-19-2015 5-54-33 AMIt will rain all morning in the Ozarks!

After some loud thunderstorms last night, we will still hear some thunder this morning. But the focus is changing to more steady rain in the area through at least the morning hours.

A cool front has moved through the Ozarks overnight. This combined with the rain and clouds will mean a very cool day for us. I don’t see high temperatures getting out of the sixties today!

This cool trend of weather will last.  By tomorrow morning, temperatures will drop into the lower fifties as yet another cool bubble of high pressure slides into the Ozarks.

More thunderstorm chances come up Friday night and last into Saturday too.


Aug 182015

8-18-2015 3-44-07 AMA cool front later today will spark quite a few showers and thunderstorms in the Ozarks and give us a very cool Wednesday.

Yesterday’s more isolated showers will be replaced by more organized bands of showers, thunderstorms and just plain rain from now until Wednesday evening.

An upper-level system will travel over Kansas and into Missouri today. Rain connected with this feature will diminish today as it moves east but then re-fire over the Ozarks by late afternoon.

The front will move through overnight with additional areas of showers and storms.

8-18-2015 4-36-54 AMOverall, the threat for widespread severe thunderstorms remains low but there is a small risk for some hail and gusty winds with a few of the stronger storms.

Behind the front on Wednesday, conditions will be chilly for mid-August.  The afternoon temperatures will stay in the sixties over most of the Ozarks.  This same cool air will send our low temperatures down into the lower fifties by Thursday morning.

More general areas of rain with some thunder will be around the area during most of Wednesday afternoon.

The long range forecast calls for temperatures to stay below normal for the next 10 days.





Aug 172015