Rain And Storms Today

 Posted by at 5:35 am on August 5, 2015  Daily Weather Blog, Headlines  No Responses »
Aug 052015
 

8-4-2015 3-16-12 PMThe Ozarks will be subject to rounds of rain and thunder today and tonight with some heavy downpours and a small chance for severe storms.

Some heavy downpours occurred overnight with areas around Fremont Hills, highway 60 in southeast Greene County and south of Sparta where 1-2 inches of rain fell.

A front combined with an upper level disturbance will keep rain and storms around the Ozarks.  On the rain side, a Flash Flood Watch is in effect for much of southwest Missouri today and tonight.  I think the potential exists for 1-3″ of rain to fall on average especially in areas north and east of Springfield.

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With the severe storm potential, a risk for damaging winds and hail does exist for some of the stronger storms which will slide in from Kansas today.  The main threat area is south and west of Springfield.

Temperatures will stay cool today with highs stopping in the middle eighties for most folks.

 

 

 

Aug 082013
 

Roaring River Gage Reading at 5:30 a.m.

Roaring River Gage Reading at 5:30 a.m.

The area of heavy flooding rain has shifted south as of the early hours of this Thursday morning.

Flash flood emergencies are in effect for Hollister, Roaring River State Park and other areas of McDonald, Barry and southern Stone Counties. Additional flash flood concerns exists in portions of northern Arkansas including Boone and Carroll Counties.

Just over 6.5″ of rain has been logged at the Branson Airport overnight (still raining).  Much of this fell in a two hour period.  This rush of water flowed north along Turkey Creek into Hollister. The water rose rapidly there, several RV’s were reportedly washed away and the situation is still unfolding.

Meanwhile, the river gage on the Roaring River in the park of the same name in Barry County swelled to 8.31 feet as of 5:30 a,m. and is guaranteed to rise much more as another round of very heavy rain is about to impact that area as of this writing (6:30 am).

Radar and Flash Flood Warnings at 6:30 a.m.

Radar and Flash Flood Warnings at 6:30 a.m.

The heavy rain will continue all day!  Please stay safe. I’ll have more timely updates on Twitter and Facebook throughout the day.

 

Rain, Rain

 Posted by at 3:55 am on August 5, 2013  Daily Weather Blog  No Responses »
Aug 052013
 

Daily Rain in Springfield, 7/26-8/4

Daily Rain in Springfield, 7/26-8/4

Rain will continue to be a large portion of the forecast for the rest of the week.

From the period of July 26th through August 4th, Springfield’s rain total is 7.67″ as measured at the airport.

Of course, it’s still raining in Springfield with more waves of rain expected later today and for the next few days!

The pattern is basically unchanged.  We sit on the edge of hot air with disturbances in the upper atmosphere riding around that edge.  We also have high rain efficiency with these rain and storm areas.

The result will be the potential for a few inches of rain in only a few hours time for those that get under some of these rain clusters for the next few days.

A front will drop into Missouri on Wednesday.  It doesn’t look like it will make it through however. What it will do is help to focus even more showers and storms!

The presence of a few fronts as well as continued cloud cover and rain has kept our temperatures below seasonal norms.  We haven’t had an above normal day since July 23rd.  It looks like the remainder of the week will stay below normal as well.

CPC 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook

CPC 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook

Longer range precipitation and temperatures outlooks by the Climate Prediction Center show this trend lasting into the middle of August.

 

 

Heavy Rain Developing/Moving In

 Posted by at 8:40 am on August 4, 2013  Daily Weather Blog  No Responses »
Aug 042013
 

Radar at 8:05 a.m.

Radar at 8:05 a.m.

This morning, more heavy rain was developing and moving out of Kansas.

The new development is popping up along the I-49 corridor.  These areas of rain and storms will be capable of producing flash flooding especially as they move into areas that got excessive rain a few days ago.  A flash flood watch is in effect for all of southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas.

This pattern is locked in for a least a few more days.  The rain today will last into the evening and overnight  hours.

More rain is expected to develop again 24 hours later mostly Monday evening and early Tuesday.

Overall, several more inches of rain will fall over the area on average with locally higher amounts.

Rain Projection Next 3 Days

Rain Projection Next 3 Days

Still more organized rain areas are expected as a cool front drops in from the north on Wednesday.

The front will ensure that we keep cooler-than-normal temperatures around through the late week.

Heavy Rain, Some Severe Storms

 Posted by at 6:58 am on August 2, 2013  Daily Weather Blog  No Responses »
Aug 022013
 

Flash Flood Watch

Flash Flood Watch

We’ll have the possibility of heavy rain in portions of the Ozarks with several rounds of rain and storms over the next few days.  A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for all of southwest Missouri.

Morning radar shows a large area of rain with some embedded storms sliding southeast out of Kansas.  This first wave of rain should stay most north of Springfield at least during the morning hours.  Storms on its southern end will affect western Missouri later in the morning.

The whole area will regenerate later today and tonight providing more storms and rain areas for our area.

There is also a severe storm risk for later this afternoon as the atmosphere regains some of its instability over western Missouri especially.  An update on this potential will be posted later this morning.

I’ll track the progress of severe weather potential throughout the day and watch which areas will have the heaviest rain set up.

Accumulated Rain Projection Next Few Days

Accumulated Rain Projection Next Few Days

The Weather Prediction Center forecast for rain today and through the weekend is juicy especially in areas north and northeast of Springfield.  A bulls-eye of 2-3″ of accumulated rain is taking shape due to the addition of several round of rain and storms expected over the next few days.

Temperatures will be right at or in some cases below seasonal norms, mostly in the eighties with perhaps a lower ninety in extreme southwest Missouri or northwest Arkansas.

 

 

Jun 162013
 

Radar Estimate of Rain Late Saturday Morning, 6/15/2013

Radar Estimate of Rain Late Saturday Morning, 6/15/2013

A very small area of southern Springfield received 9″+ of rain in only a few hours during the late morning hours of Saturday, June 15, 2013. This caused extreme flash flooding.

The rain storm caused the Springfield National Weather Service office to issue its first Flash Flood Emergency for the city. This is a special category above and beyond the Flash Flood Warning, reserved for times when a combination of extreme flooding and a major population areas overlap.

The enclosed map indicates the distribution of the rain fairly well but is off on the rain totals. This is not surprising given the intensity of the event.

In the hours leading up to this rain “event”, I remember commenting on the random nature of expected rain and thunder areas expected and that somewhat heavier rain might be expected.  It was a hard forecast to nail down because unlike the approach of a front which has a definite structure and somewhat more predictable movement, the features controlling the rain burst on Saturday were much more subtle.

One of those features was what is called an outflow boundary, a mini cool front of sorts which is produced by the cool air rushing out of a thunderstorm or storms.  On Saturday morning, such a outflow was traveling south over southern Missouri and eventually passed just south of Springfield during the late morning hours.

Some outflow areas are good at providing a sort of gentle push up in the atmosphere and can actively generate rain and/or storms behind them. I commented on this during Saturday mornings’ “One Minute Weather” discussion!

On Saturday morning, this lifting of the air persisted.  At my house, I heard of lot of thunder and witnessed cloud-to-ground bolts. Since I had just developed a new lightning image feature on this web site, I was actively warning outdoor folks about the lightning and encouraging them to check the map.

Flooding Near Weaver Road (Jason Harlow)

Flooding Near Weaver Road (Jason Harlow)

It rained, the rain got heavier but it was all within what I thought was possible on that morning.

There were other contributing factors for heavier than normal rain on this morning. The jet stream winds or overall steering currents were on the slow side. This meant that storms were going to move slowly on this day. All else remaining equal, a slow moving storm will always dump heavier rain. It simply has more time to do so over any given spot!

Also, the humidity over a deep layer of the atmosphere was high in a “plume” which arced from Texas , over the Ozarks and on up into the Midwest.  These “plumes” of higher humidity lead to rain and storms which have higher rain efficiency.

Finally, the ultimate slow moving storm is one which doesn’t move at all!  This is what happened on the south side of Springfield as a storm with a high rainfall rate parked over one location. As a result, the rain totals went through the roof! (literally and figuratively)

By the way, stationary movement is more likely during the summer months when upper level winds are much slower. It becomes possible for a balance between these weak winds and the development of new storm cells to be reached so that the net propagation of a storm is nearly zero. It doesn’t move!

This leads me to the next point and a question, “Will a weather forecaster ever think that 9″ of rain is possible in only a few hours time?” Answer: possible, maybe. Forecast? Probably not.

Near Cardinal Toward Woodhaven (Linden Mueller)

Near Cardinal Toward Woodhaven (Linden Mueller)

This is because events like this occur in very small scales of space and time.  They are controlled by smaller scale features that are either missed or under-forecast.  The computer models we so often reference are not always going to see these features.  Even if the models were capable, we don’t have enough detailed observations often enough. The models would also have to be run over a smaller area to pick up the details needed.  All of this is possible but we’re not there yet!

 

 

 

May 302013
 

Outlook for Heavy Rain. Total Through Saturday

Outlook for Heavy Rain. Total Through Saturday

The Ozarks will see rain and thunder today with some severe storms possible but the bigger day (and night) will be Friday.

On the radar this morning, areas of rain and some thunder are over the Ozarks and coming up out of the southwest.  This will keep us damp in some places and with the extensive cloud cover that comes with the rain, a little cooler.

This cloud cover should also keep the air from becoming very unstable, in most areas. That’s the key, to watch the skies to see if sunshine, combined with decent humidity and a strong jet stream, will be able to provide small areas where severe storms might be favored this afternoon.  I’ll monitor this throughout the day.

Tornado Probabilities for This Afternoon/Evening

Tornado Probabilities for This Afternoon/Evening

It does look like more organized storms which develop out to our west and southwest will roll into the area later this evening and tonight with the potential for severe storms, probably the best of the day.  The Storm Prediction Center has western Missouri in a 5% tornado risk for later this evening with a 2% risk extending as far east as Springfield (percent chance of a tornado within 25 miles of your town). This will likely be adjusted somewhat by 8 a.m. and I’ll “social media” the update.

Friday looks like a repeat except I think the volume will be turned up with regard to severe weather and very heavy rain.  Once again, the main threat would be during the evening hours. Severe storm erupting along a slowly moving cold front and out west near the dry line in Oklahoma will begin to approach the Ozarks by evening. The severe threat will transform to a heavy rain threat through the nighttime on Friday into Saturday morning. The inserted rain outlook from the Weather Prediction Center shows the potential for widespread 3-5″ rain totals between now and Saturday with much of that forecast to fall Friday night and Saturday morning. A flash flood watch is in effect for the Missouri portion of the Ozarks.

Severe Storms Friday

Severe Storms Friday

The weekend will begin to improve on Saturday and the rain bands slip south and high pressure begins to clear the Ozarks out. We’ll get cooler and less humid air into the region. Sunday looks great with highs in the seventies. Monday morning cool as lows dip close to fifty.

More showers and storm appear on tap by the middle of next week.

 

 

 

More Storms/Heavy Rain Today

 Posted by at 11:47 am on May 20, 2013  Daily Weather Blog  No Responses »
May 202013
 

Moderate Risk for Severe Storms Today

Moderate Risk for Severe Storms Today

This morning we have a line of weaker rain and storms draped over the Ozarks. This will influence where more powerful storms will fire later today.

The bands of rain will continue mainly to the north of I-44 this morning. Heavy rains may lead to some flash flooding especially in areas which received the heaviest rain last night including Newton, Jasper, Barton, Dade and Lawrence Counties.

Any storms which developing later in the afternoon during peak heating will likely be severe. Outflow boundaries will have to monitored for enhanced severe potential.  Much of the area is under a moderate risk of severe storms today. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Storms are expected to fire to the southwest of us in Oklahoma. These would not make in in to the Ozarks until late this evening.

Rainfall Projection Today and Tuesday

Rainfall Projection Today and Tuesday

Everyone should be on the lookout for severe storms today.  There will be an enhanced flash flooding threat in some areas which will really become a threat later tonight.  A flash flood watch is in effect for much of the area.  Some areas could pick up 3-4″ inches of rain in addition to what has already fallen.