More Heavy Rain for the Ozarks

 Posted by at 6:36 am on August 12, 2013  Daily Weather Blog  No Responses »
Aug 122013
 

Flash Flood Watch Area

Flash Flood Watch Area

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for all of the Ozarks for today and much of Tuesday.

A very active radar screen is evident out over Kansas this morning with lots of rain and storms areas.  This activity is moving southeast and will begin affecting areas of western Missouri by later today.

While everyone will have a chance for rain and storms today, it appears the greatest chance for heavy rain will be in extreme southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas in the area outlined by the Flash Flood Watch.

Latest computer model guidance suggests that a large area of heavy rainfall will develop in the watch area later tonight and early on Tuesday morning.  This will all have to be monitored carefully over the next couple of days to see exactly where the heaviest rain will set up.

Any severe weather with this latest rain-maker should be confined to areas west of the Ozarks in Kansas and Oklahoma.

Rain Projection Through Tuesday

Rain Projection Through Tuesday

By late Tuesday, the rain areas should move on and a weak but effective area of high pressure will push into the Ozarks. This high will hang out for the rest of the week.  This feature will ensure that we keep very cool temperatures for this time of the year in the forecast. I have a few days with highs only in the seventies later this week!

A weak cut-low low aloft is being suggested by some computer models for the weekend. The effect of this would be to keep the cooler weather into the weekend as well!

Springfield is in a run of below normal temperatures.  It started on July 26th and as of yesterday the run of days stands at 19. I expected to add as least 7 more days to this run including today!

 

 

Showers, Some Heavier Downpours

 Posted by at 7:31 am on August 9, 2013  Daily Weather Blog  No Responses »
Aug 092013
 

Radar Snopshot

Radar Snopshot

Showers and patches of heavy rain will continue through today especially and into part of the weekend.

Even though the Ozarks didn’t wake up to flash flooding this morning, it doesn’t mean the threat is reduced!  The atmosphere in the Ozarks is still primed with any showers and rain areas that do develop becoming very efficient at producing lots of rain in a short amount of time.

The overall pattern still features a stalled front with slow moving west to east winds aloft and high humidity through a deep layer of the atmosphere.  This features has slipped south over the past day and this trend will continue over the weekend.  The deep layer of humid air is forecast to ease somewhat over the weekend…good news.

Forecast Surface Map for Thursday

Forecast Surface Map for Thursday

Also good news is what appears to be a stronger flow out of the northwest setting up starting on Wednesday. This would drive a cool front through the Ozarks with a high pressure bubble pushing into the Great Lakes states by late week. This would indeed shut down the “rain train” in the Ozarks!

Whether it has been persistent clouds/rain or cool fronts, we have been cool!  Yesterday was the 16th day straight of below normal temperatures for Springfield.  This streak will likely be extended another seven days starting with

Springfield High/Low Past 16 Days

Springfield High/Low Past 16 Days

today.

Aug 082013
 

Roaring River Gage Reading at 5:30 a.m.

Roaring River Gage Reading at 5:30 a.m.

The area of heavy flooding rain has shifted south as of the early hours of this Thursday morning.

Flash flood emergencies are in effect for Hollister, Roaring River State Park and other areas of McDonald, Barry and southern Stone Counties. Additional flash flood concerns exists in portions of northern Arkansas including Boone and Carroll Counties.

Just over 6.5″ of rain has been logged at the Branson Airport overnight (still raining).  Much of this fell in a two hour period.  This rush of water flowed north along Turkey Creek into Hollister. The water rose rapidly there, several RV’s were reportedly washed away and the situation is still unfolding.

Meanwhile, the river gage on the Roaring River in the park of the same name in Barry County swelled to 8.31 feet as of 5:30 a,m. and is guaranteed to rise much more as another round of very heavy rain is about to impact that area as of this writing (6:30 am).

Radar and Flash Flood Warnings at 6:30 a.m.

Radar and Flash Flood Warnings at 6:30 a.m.

The heavy rain will continue all day!  Please stay safe. I’ll have more timely updates on Twitter and Facebook throughout the day.

 

Another Day, More Flooding

 Posted by at 5:06 pm on August 7, 2013  Daily Weather Blog  No Responses »
Aug 072013
 

hackbarth_jerome_flood

Interstate 44 Underwater

More flash flooding struck a portion of the Ozarks overnight.

It’s been wild again in areas northeast of Springfield.  The Little Piney Creek and Gasconade River received the lion’s share of torrential rains late last night and early this morning.

Radar rain estimates and ground measurements verify a large area of 6-8″ of rain over portions of Maries, Miller and Phelps Counties.

The river rain gage at Jerome for the Gasconade River reached a record level late this morning.  As of late this afternoon, it sits at 31.81 feet. This surpasses the previous record established in December of 1982 and is higher than the historic flood of 2008.  Also, almost a year to this date, the river at this location was near historic lows, more than 31 feet lower than it is now!

River Gage at Jerome, MO

River Gage at Jerome, MO

The Little Piney Creek in Newburg went crazy this morning too.  It peaked at 15.22 feet, causing evacuations in Newburg.

All of this water caused the Gasconade to flow over Interstate 44 today causing massive back-ups.

The real question is: how much more will we get?  Well the forecast is not encouraging!

The latest rainfall projection from the Weather Prediction Center calls for widespread, average totals exceeding 3″ over much of southwest Missouri over the next three days.

A front dropping south into Missouri will help to perpetuate the rain chances by stalling and allowing more rain areas to form and spread from west to east over the next few days.

Weather Prediction Center Rain Forecast

Weather Prediction Center Rain Forecast

With the front around on Thursday and a slight increase in jet stream winds, there is a possibility of some severe storms.  This will be controlled largely by how rain and storm areas evolve later tonight.

Also, today marks the 15th day in a row of below normal temperatures in Springfield.  That run should continue for quite a few more days.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Flash Flooding Threat Continues

 Posted by at 7:20 am on August 6, 2013  Daily Weather Blog  No Responses »
Aug 062013
 

Radar Rain Estimation and Flooding Highlights

Radar Rain Estimation and Flooding Highlights

Major flash flooding occurred in portions of Pulaski and Texas Counties (and some nearby areas) when at least 4-6″ of rain fell quickly overnight. I have inserted a video tour of what happen (recorded around 6:30 a.m.) below. NOTE: I-44 is now re-opened!

The major area of rain is still impacting areas east of Springfield. It is mostly moving out but areas of along east highway 60 out of Springfield will experience another expansion of rain over the next few hours.

Projected Rainfall from the Weather Prediction Center

Projected Rainfall from the Weather Prediction Center

The rain isn’t over!  Several more rounds are expected over the next few days.  These have been mostly nocturnal systems but not all of them!  Since the ground is now saturated in many areas, less rain will be required to cause flash flooding.  I’ll report what’s coming!

Rain, Rain

 Posted by at 3:55 am on August 5, 2013  Daily Weather Blog  No Responses »
Aug 052013
 

Daily Rain in Springfield, 7/26-8/4

Daily Rain in Springfield, 7/26-8/4

Rain will continue to be a large portion of the forecast for the rest of the week.

From the period of July 26th through August 4th, Springfield’s rain total is 7.67″ as measured at the airport.

Of course, it’s still raining in Springfield with more waves of rain expected later today and for the next few days!

The pattern is basically unchanged.  We sit on the edge of hot air with disturbances in the upper atmosphere riding around that edge.  We also have high rain efficiency with these rain and storm areas.

The result will be the potential for a few inches of rain in only a few hours time for those that get under some of these rain clusters for the next few days.

A front will drop into Missouri on Wednesday.  It doesn’t look like it will make it through however. What it will do is help to focus even more showers and storms!

The presence of a few fronts as well as continued cloud cover and rain has kept our temperatures below seasonal norms.  We haven’t had an above normal day since July 23rd.  It looks like the remainder of the week will stay below normal as well.

CPC 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook

CPC 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook

Longer range precipitation and temperatures outlooks by the Climate Prediction Center show this trend lasting into the middle of August.

 

 

Heavy Rain, Some Severe Storms

 Posted by at 6:58 am on August 2, 2013  Daily Weather Blog  No Responses »
Aug 022013
 

Flash Flood Watch

Flash Flood Watch

We’ll have the possibility of heavy rain in portions of the Ozarks with several rounds of rain and storms over the next few days.  A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for all of southwest Missouri.

Morning radar shows a large area of rain with some embedded storms sliding southeast out of Kansas.  This first wave of rain should stay most north of Springfield at least during the morning hours.  Storms on its southern end will affect western Missouri later in the morning.

The whole area will regenerate later today and tonight providing more storms and rain areas for our area.

There is also a severe storm risk for later this afternoon as the atmosphere regains some of its instability over western Missouri especially.  An update on this potential will be posted later this morning.

I’ll track the progress of severe weather potential throughout the day and watch which areas will have the heaviest rain set up.

Accumulated Rain Projection Next Few Days

Accumulated Rain Projection Next Few Days

The Weather Prediction Center forecast for rain today and through the weekend is juicy especially in areas north and northeast of Springfield.  A bulls-eye of 2-3″ of accumulated rain is taking shape due to the addition of several round of rain and storms expected over the next few days.

Temperatures will be right at or in some cases below seasonal norms, mostly in the eighties with perhaps a lower ninety in extreme southwest Missouri or northwest Arkansas.

 

 

May 302013
 

Outlook for Heavy Rain. Total Through Saturday

Outlook for Heavy Rain. Total Through Saturday

The Ozarks will see rain and thunder today with some severe storms possible but the bigger day (and night) will be Friday.

On the radar this morning, areas of rain and some thunder are over the Ozarks and coming up out of the southwest.  This will keep us damp in some places and with the extensive cloud cover that comes with the rain, a little cooler.

This cloud cover should also keep the air from becoming very unstable, in most areas. That’s the key, to watch the skies to see if sunshine, combined with decent humidity and a strong jet stream, will be able to provide small areas where severe storms might be favored this afternoon.  I’ll monitor this throughout the day.

Tornado Probabilities for This Afternoon/Evening

Tornado Probabilities for This Afternoon/Evening

It does look like more organized storms which develop out to our west and southwest will roll into the area later this evening and tonight with the potential for severe storms, probably the best of the day.  The Storm Prediction Center has western Missouri in a 5% tornado risk for later this evening with a 2% risk extending as far east as Springfield (percent chance of a tornado within 25 miles of your town). This will likely be adjusted somewhat by 8 a.m. and I’ll “social media” the update.

Friday looks like a repeat except I think the volume will be turned up with regard to severe weather and very heavy rain.  Once again, the main threat would be during the evening hours. Severe storm erupting along a slowly moving cold front and out west near the dry line in Oklahoma will begin to approach the Ozarks by evening. The severe threat will transform to a heavy rain threat through the nighttime on Friday into Saturday morning. The inserted rain outlook from the Weather Prediction Center shows the potential for widespread 3-5″ rain totals between now and Saturday with much of that forecast to fall Friday night and Saturday morning. A flash flood watch is in effect for the Missouri portion of the Ozarks.

Severe Storms Friday

Severe Storms Friday

The weekend will begin to improve on Saturday and the rain bands slip south and high pressure begins to clear the Ozarks out. We’ll get cooler and less humid air into the region. Sunday looks great with highs in the seventies. Monday morning cool as lows dip close to fifty.

More showers and storm appear on tap by the middle of next week.

 

 

 

May 192013
 

Probability of a Tornado Within 25 mi of a Point for Later Today

Probability of a Tornado Within 25 mi of a Point for Later Today

Starting with later this evening, the Ozarks will experience several bouts of severe thunderstorms and heavy flooding rain potential.

This morning, a band of showers is drifting into extreme western Missouri. This is left-over activity from severe weather in the Kansas last night. It is behind a cool air outflow and may pose a small hail or wind threat during the morning hours.

Most of the day will warm, humid and breezy.

Supercell thunderstorms are expected to develop in central/eastern Kansas and Oklahoma by late afternoon and spread eastward, affecting areas of western Missouri and northwest Arkansas by evening.  Large hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes are expected with this batch storm storms.

The Storm Prediction Center has upgraded all of western Missouri to a 15% tornado probability.  This is a percentage chance of a tornado within 25 miles of where you live.

As is typical, the storms are expected to form more of a line by later in the evening and move deeper into the Ozarks. The line will still be severe at this point with the same threats.  Into the overnight hours, it will tend to weaken much as last night’s activity is weakening this morning.

Springfield will see a threat for severe storms in the 10 pm to 1 am time frame.

A large heavy rain area will set up behind the line during the evening hours. 1-2 inch rain totals are possible with this activity later tonight.

On Monday, this will all repeat itself, perhaps more centered over the Ozarks.  A moderate risk for severe storms exists for this day.

This will be a period where I strongly  encourage you to watch for the latest developments!  I’ll continue to update the situation.

 

Apr 172013
 

Flash Flood Watch for Later Today, Tonight and Thursday

Flash Flood Watch for Later Today, Tonight and Thursday

Our situation in the Ozarks includes scattered storms, some severe storms and heavy rain later today, tonight and into Thursday.

The Front

A cool front which provided 40° plus temperature differences over the area on Tuesday will be lifting back north across the Ozarks today.

As it does, a return to seventies and eighties is in store for all of the area.

We will see more scattered areas of showers and storm develop north of this front today.

Bigger Show

A large storm is heading for the central U.S.  This will bring severe weather to the Great Plains today.

For the Ozarks, severe storms are possible with this system.  The main event will be later tonight as storms organize out west and approach the area.

The warm front will have to be watched carefully today for any renegade storms which fire.  I don’t think this possibility is very high.

severe_risk

Severe Storm Risk Areas

Western Missouri is close to a moderate risk area for severe storms at this writing (6 a.m.).  Depending on how and where some of these storms form out west, this area may be affected by storms a little earlier.  I’ll monitor this throughout the day.

Hail and strong winds are the main concern with the storms later tonight. An isolated tornado cannot be ruled out.

Rain Projection Today Through Thursday

Rain Projection Today Through Thursday

Heavy Rain

Much of the area is under a flash flood watch for tonight and Thursday. The line of storms is forecast to become a wider band of heavy rain late tonight as it makes it mostly into the western portion of the Ozarks.

Reformation of more storms on Thursday will form another post-storm area of rain which will add more the the totals, especially east of Springfield.