A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for all of the Ozarks for today and much of Tuesday.
A very active radar screen is evident out over Kansas this morning with lots of rain and storms areas. This activity is moving southeast and will begin affecting areas of western Missouri by later today.
While everyone will have a chance for rain and storms today, it appears the greatest chance for heavy rain will be in extreme southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas in the area outlined by the Flash Flood Watch.
Latest computer model guidance suggests that a large area of heavy rainfall will develop in the watch area later tonight and early on Tuesday morning. This will all have to be monitored carefully over the next couple of days to see exactly where the heaviest rain will set up.
Any severe weather with this latest rain-maker should be confined to areas west of the Ozarks in Kansas and Oklahoma.
By late Tuesday, the rain areas should move on and a weak but effective area of high pressure will push into the Ozarks. This high will hang out for the rest of the week. This feature will ensure that we keep very cool temperatures for this time of the year in the forecast. I have a few days with highs only in the seventies later this week!
A weak cut-low low aloft is being suggested by some computer models for the weekend. The effect of this would be to keep the cooler weather into the weekend as well!
Springfield is in a run of below normal temperatures. It started on July 26th and as of yesterday the run of days stands at 19. I expected to add as least 7 more days to this run including today!