May 042013
 
clouds_radar

Clouds, Radar and Temperature This Morning

It’s still snowing this morning in portions of southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas. This will gradually ease up by mid-morning although areas of drizzle will persist through much of the day.

The Springfield snow total for yesterday was 1.4″. This was the latest measurable snow recorded in Springfield.  We did have snow reported after midnight too, I don’t think it added up to more than a trace.  Springfield also recorded a record cold high temperature of 36° on Friday.

The upper level low is still spinning around over the Ozarks.  Drier and slightly warmer air is being drawn into this circulation so the snow should stop this morning.  Areas of light showers or drizzle will persist however through the day.  I don’t expect our high will get much above the lower 40′s. Wow.

This low is forecast to keep moving east and out of the area through Sunday.  This will mean a gradual warm-up for the Ozarks.  Sunday should see highs in the 50′s. Sixties and seventies will come back for the work week.

A disturbance over the western U.S. should begin to move into the central U.S. by mid-week.  This will start to interact with more humidity in the area to produce some showers and thunderstorm in the area by around Thursday and Friday.

May 022013
 
colder_air

6 a.m. Temperatures

Temperatures are falling in the Ozarks as a strong area of out of season cold air stays for a couple of days.

In Springfield, (and in most of the Ozarks) temperatures will gradually fall today through the fifties and into the forties by later afternoon. The far eastern portion of the Ozarks will actually warm a little before the front arrives later today.

The main calling card of this cold air system will be heavy and steady rain.  This rain will begin later today and last overnight into early Friday.  Rain totals are expected to range from 1-2.5″ over the next three days with the bulk of that falling later today and tonight.

Then there is much talked about snowflake chances.  There are two opportunities for wet snow to mix in (or just be snow?) coming up. The first is the back edge of the rain shield later tonight as the column of air cools enough to support snow. My latest “Drawing Board” depicts this area.

Another chance will occur tomorrow night in the center of the coldest core of air aloft as it drifts somewhere over northern Arkansas or extreme southern Missouri.

In both cases, nighttime is favored and pure, widespread snow might be hard to come by. It would be difficult to get any accumulations on roads but in some areas, grassy accumulation would not be out of the question!

Rainfall Projection Through Saturday.

Rainfall Projection Through Saturday.

The “cut-off” upper level low will gradually leave the area this weekend.  Frost or freeze conditions will have to watched closely but my feeling is that cloud cover, lots of moisture and some wind will all help to reduce the threat of frost despite temperatures which will be in the thirties for several mornings.

 

Apr 012013
 
cold_front

Weather Map at 6:15 a.m.

A cold front will put everyone into a Spring slump and will be enough to cause snow to fly again in the Ozarks!

Colder Air

The colder air has already begun to press into the Ozarks this morning. Temperatures are much colder to our north and north winds are increasing in upstate Missouri.

All of this means we’ll be at least twenty degrees cooler than we were yesterday (which was 66°!).

So look for temperatures to only peak into the forties today with a wind to go with it!  It will be slightly warmer in northern Arkansas, perhaps seeing some fifties there.

Then There’s the Snow!

Precipitation will be breaking out behind the cold front later tonight. This will last into Tuesday as well.  While much of this will be rain showers, snow can certainly mix into this especially later tonight.  No accumulations are expected.

Tuesday

This will be a fairly raw day for the season as temperatures stay on the low side of the forties and rain showers persist.  There is even some indication now that showers may persist into a portion of Wednesday.  An upper level low will slowly travel just south of the area during this time, extending the shower chances.

Warm-Up

Thursday and into the weekend, much warmer conditions will take hold!

In fact, I think that seventies are in the cards for us this coming weekend!  This is all part of a pattern shift taking place which will feature a trough of low pressure out west, encouraging warm and eventually more humid conditions to move in by early next week.

Storm Chasing

My latest storm chase forecast is up and the above mentioned pattern shift will aid in the possibility of severe storms over the Great Plains perhaps starting on Sunday. This may be an opportunity for a “Lock and Load” storm chase tour!  Please E-mail me at ted@tedwkeller.com if you are interested!

 

 

 

Mar 302013
 
Radar/Temperatures at 8 a.m.

Radar/Temperatures at 8 a.m.

Showers and some thunder will visit the Ozarks today but Easter Sunday should be fantastic!

More Rain

Rain on morning radar is showing up in southwest Missouri and over much of eastern Kansas.  This activity is sliding east-southeast this morning and will affect the area through about Noon.  Some thunder may be included in this batch of rain but no severe weather is expected.

More scattered showers and storms might redevelop later today along a wind shift line. While there is an outside chance for some hail with these storms, the overall threat of severe weather remains low for much of the area.

Some folks may pick up an additional .25 to .75″ of rain, especially the more south and southwest your location is from Springfield.

I’ve outlined the heavier rain and hail areas I expect today on the Drawing Board.

Great Easter!

Mostly sunny skies and gorgeous temperatures await us this Easter!  Sunrise is at 7 a.m. on Sunday and skies should be clear to partly cloudy.

After starting in the upper forties, the day should quickly warm and all areas of the Ozarks should go back into the sixties!

April Fool’s Day

Monday will be colder as a fresh shot of cold air arrives the night before.

Precipitation forming behind the front will take the form of a chilly rain during the day Monday and may mix with or change over to a wet snow for some Monday evening.  No accumulation is expected with this snowfall but hard to discuss in early April!

Rest of the Workweek

The week looks dry and chilly for Tuesday and Wednesday but warms by the end.  We should get sixties back by the end of the week and into the following weekend.

 

 

 

 

Mar 292013
 
Computer Model Temperature Trends

Computer Model Temperature Trends

It’s a forecast which includes thunder, sixties and snow as Easter Sunday and the first days of April come into sight.

Showers Today

Early morning radar shows rain showers and some thunder rumbles out there. Light to moderate rain at times. The bands of rain are sliding ESE and will begin to depart the area by late morning and early afternoon.

More showers and a few thundershowers will form later tonight in a similar pattern.  These I think might lean a tad more to the south, be slightly heavier and track in about the same way.

Staying Warm

It will stay warm through the weekend!  Highs will be in the sixties today through Sunday.  Easter Sunday looks great with clearing skies and highs in the lower and middle sixties!

A wind-shift will come in Saturday evening and provide the focus for another round of showers and storms. A few of these storms out over Kansas and Oklahoma could develop some gusty winds and hail but as of now, this doesn’t look like a huge issue for the Ozarks on Saturday.

The rain and thunder along this wind in the wind will be healthy, nice additional Spring rains! And it will be gone by early Sunday morning.

Some Monday Snow?

Some Monday Snow?

Cold/Snow Shot

The beginning of April unfortunately will start cold once again as we go back to our old ways of highs in the forties and lows in the twenties.  This will be the case on Monday and Tuesday with more mild conditions by the end of next week.

On Monday, a mix of rain and snow will develop behind the cold air advance and by nightfall could just be pure snow in the Ozarks.

 

Mar 242013
 
Radar (Rain/Snow) at 5:50 a.m.

Radar (Rain/Snow) at 5:50 a.m.

Snow and wind are rapidly developing and/or moving toward the Ozarks!

Snow rates of 1-2″ per hour are possible in portions of Kansas and Missouri this early hour as a winter storm revs up.

Wind Gusts at 5 a.m.

Wind Gusts at 5 a.m.

The snow will march from east to west across Missouri this morning.  Travel north to Kansas City is not recommended!

The heaviest snow band for accumulations in excess of 8″ will track north of Springfield this morning and early afternoon.

My Drawing Board has been updated with the latest snow forecast.

In addition to the snow, gusty north to northwest winds will exceed 30 mph at times during the late morning and early afternoon hours. This will reduce visibility more in some areas.

Movement of Rain/Snow Line Today

Movement of Rain/Snow Line Today

This snow has already starting in Joplin. I’d estimate a changeover to snow in Springfield around 7:30 a.m. I included the approximate movement of the rain/snow line over the Ozarks today:

Mar 222013
 

Here are a couple of things:

First, I thought it would be interesting to compare my last snow forecast from late Thursday morning to the actual reports. This is work in progress of course since it’s still snowing and reports are still trickling in. Funny, I would have been better off to keep my higher totals from very early Thursday morning!

Also, here is a slide show of some snow scenes from today, also work in progress:

Mar 212013
 
winter_advisories

Winter Advisories as of 6:30 am

Snow is heading for the Ozarks later today. Damp and chilly weather will last through the weekend.

Snow Today

Snow is on radar early this morning up in Nebraska, part of a developing area which will continue to slide toward the Ozarks through the day.  Initially, dry air will prevent snow from reaching the ground even through it shows up on the radar. (like it is early this morning)

I haven’t changed the forecast snow area much. I narrowed it up a bit and shifted the heavier snow southeast a touch.  I’m gonna keep Springfield at around 4″ still.

This is an “on the freezing point”  snow so it will be wet and much of what falls especially during the daylight hours will start to melt immediately. This will cut down on impact just a touch.

The best accumulations I believe will be over south-central Missouri and north-central Arkansas starting in the late afternoon and into the evening. Areas receiving snow after dark have a better shot at it sticking longer to surfaces.

The snow forecast and timing of the snow is best depicted using the Drawing Board. You can pan and zoom around on this page!

Messy Tonight

Probability of 4" or More of Snow

Probability of 4″ or More of Snow

After the main “lift” passes to our southeast, we have some freezing drizzle and/or rain showers to contend with as early as the evening hours over southwest Missouri and last through the overnight time frame.

I don’t think this will be heavy but it could put a light glaze of ice down in some areas tonight.

Damp and Chilly

This first weekend of Spring looks wet and on the chilly side. It will “warm” ahead of the next storm but this really just means enough to keep the next wave of precipitation liquid, at least to start!  Saturday should warm into the forties.

A round of rain late on Saturday looks robust.  Our total liquid forecast through the weekend looks greater than 1″ in Springfield and perhaps more than 1.5″ off to the southeast.

More Snow?

Liquid Forecast Through Sunday AM

Liquid Forecast Through Sunday AM

The weekend system does have a snow potential with it as well. If this were to happen, it would be late Saturday night or early Sunday. The snow would be most likely north of I-44. Watching.

 

 

 

Mar 202013
 
One Computer Output for Snow by Thursday Night

One Computer Output for Snow by Thursday Night

This is an update to the snow potential for tomorrow.  We also have a wet weather system this weekend. All precipitation is good at this point but…

Snow Update

A narrow but intense band of snow is still forecast to develop on Thursday.  The model runs over the last 24 hours since my last blog are about the same with track of the snow varying a bit with bigger fluctuations in snow amounts.

I put up my snow forecast on the drawing board this morning.  My 4″ plus area hasn’t changed a whole lot.  The “plus” could mean 6″ or even more but with these heavy wet snows riding on a small area of lift, it is difficult to know where the upper limit to snow is or where exactly it will fall.

The ensemble runs I mentioned yesterday have narrowed their range (not as extreme) and the mean now for Springfield is right around 4″.

Put me down for 4″ of snow in Springfield. This snow will really get going just after noon on Thursday and last into the early evening.

Note that snow that falls during the daylight hours will melt pretty quickly while snow which falls say in south central Missouri or north central Arkansas will “stick” for a time longer during the evening, overnight Thursday and very early on Friday.

The crazy thing is that this snow is not connected to a cold front. So in all probability, rain showers will take over perhaps in some areas by Friday morning and last into the day on Friday.

My Seven Day Temperature Forecast

Wet and Chilly

Total Liquid Through Weekend

Total Liquid Through Weekend

The weekend looks damp and cold. We will be in the “warm” sector of a developing low pressure system, meaning forties will be around on Friday and Saturday in portions of the Ozarks.

There are good signals for decent rain development. In fact, the water equivalent for the upcoming two storms will probably exceed one inch.  This will further knock down our drought condition for sure.

A backlash of snow is possible in say western Missouri late Saturday and early Sunday as this system departs.

 

 

Mar 192013
 
Snow Total "Range"

Snow Total “Range”

Today will be near average for middle March with temperatures in the fifties. It still looks like accumulating snow in the Ozarks on Thursday!

Nice Last Full Day of Winter

Well, astronomically anyway, this is the last day of winter.  Today will be a mild one. I expect high temperatures in the middle to upper fifties with lots of sunshine.

It will turn cooler on Wednesday as a front slips through the Ozarks. Wednesday will drop back down in the forties.

O.K., The Snow!

Snow will fall in the Ozarks on Thursday.  It will be a wet snow with temperatures right at or slightly above freezing. There will be an area that will probably get 4 inches or more.

Beyond these statements. uncertainty remains with regard to placement and totals.  I put my best guess on the Drawing Board this morning.

Whenever a “warm” snow is forecast, the amount of humidity is pretty high and the potential for a wet, heavy snow always exists on the coldest side of the storm system, especially if the storm has a lot of “lift” which this one seems to have. These types of snow are not unusual during March.

Add to this a track which has wobbled around from model run to model run.  This type of uncertainty is demonstrated on the graph which shows an ensemble of computer model snow forecasts. These are all run at the same time with the same data but the conditions are “tweaked” mathematically to see how sensitive the situation is to minor changes.  One model cranks out nearly 10″ for Springfield (green). However, the mean or average is more like 2″.  This is what keeps meteorologist up at night!

This will all start late morning on Thursday.  Rain will be more likely in northwest Arkansas, snow in central Missouri.

7 Day High/Low Forecast

It Gets Better!

This weekend is looking very interesting too.  While it does look like a cold rain will develop on Saturday, the northwest edge of this storm will be another snow producer!  This might be another snowstorm for portions of Kansas and northwest Missouri this weekend. The backlash snow area this system will visit the Ozarks on Sunday