Rain and Cool Today

 Posted by at 5:56 am on August 19, 2015  Daily Weather Blog, Headlines  No Responses »
Aug 192015
 

8-19-2015 5-54-33 AMIt will rain all morning in the Ozarks!

After some loud thunderstorms last night, we will still hear some thunder this morning. But the focus is changing to more steady rain in the area through at least the morning hours.

A cool front has moved through the Ozarks overnight. This combined with the rain and clouds will mean a very cool day for us. I don’t see high temperatures getting out of the sixties today!

This cool trend of weather will last.  By tomorrow morning, temperatures will drop into the lower fifties as yet another cool bubble of high pressure slides into the Ozarks.

More thunderstorm chances come up Friday night and last into Saturday too.

 

Aug 082015
 

Storms_NW_of_SpringfieldUPDATE:  National Weather Service storm survey teams found evidence of 95-100 mph straight-line winds on Saturday (8/8/15) in an area just west of Fellows Lake just north of Springfield:

STORY: A batch of thunderstorms which came out of the northwest from Kansas produced some wind damage in the Ozarks on Saturday morning.

As the storms crossed over Stockton Lake, estimated 60 mph winds were reported.  The storms continued to pick up in intensity as they approached southern Polk and northwestern Greene Counties.

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Large trees were reported down in and near the Walnut Grove area in northwestern Greene County. A 24 inch tree was reported down in Bois D’Arc.  Power lines were reported down in the Willard area near Farm Road 56 and Highway 13 and also FR 129 and 88.

In Springfield, the strongest winds tracked through the north side of town, especially north of I-44.  At least two barns damaged and one was destroyed near Farm Road 66 and 174. Ebeneizer reported a tree down near FR 54 and 127. The Springfield National Weather Service reported a wind gust to 41 mph.

More Heavy Rain for the Ozarks

 Posted by at 6:36 am on August 12, 2013  Daily Weather Blog  No Responses »
Aug 122013
 

Flash Flood Watch Area

Flash Flood Watch Area

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for all of the Ozarks for today and much of Tuesday.

A very active radar screen is evident out over Kansas this morning with lots of rain and storms areas.  This activity is moving southeast and will begin affecting areas of western Missouri by later today.

While everyone will have a chance for rain and storms today, it appears the greatest chance for heavy rain will be in extreme southwest Missouri and northwest Arkansas in the area outlined by the Flash Flood Watch.

Latest computer model guidance suggests that a large area of heavy rainfall will develop in the watch area later tonight and early on Tuesday morning.  This will all have to be monitored carefully over the next couple of days to see exactly where the heaviest rain will set up.

Any severe weather with this latest rain-maker should be confined to areas west of the Ozarks in Kansas and Oklahoma.

Rain Projection Through Tuesday

Rain Projection Through Tuesday

By late Tuesday, the rain areas should move on and a weak but effective area of high pressure will push into the Ozarks. This high will hang out for the rest of the week.  This feature will ensure that we keep very cool temperatures for this time of the year in the forecast. I have a few days with highs only in the seventies later this week!

A weak cut-low low aloft is being suggested by some computer models for the weekend. The effect of this would be to keep the cooler weather into the weekend as well!

Springfield is in a run of below normal temperatures.  It started on July 26th and as of yesterday the run of days stands at 19. I expected to add as least 7 more days to this run including today!

 

 

Aug 082013
 

Roaring River Gage Reading at 5:30 a.m.

Roaring River Gage Reading at 5:30 a.m.

The area of heavy flooding rain has shifted south as of the early hours of this Thursday morning.

Flash flood emergencies are in effect for Hollister, Roaring River State Park and other areas of McDonald, Barry and southern Stone Counties. Additional flash flood concerns exists in portions of northern Arkansas including Boone and Carroll Counties.

Just over 6.5″ of rain has been logged at the Branson Airport overnight (still raining).  Much of this fell in a two hour period.  This rush of water flowed north along Turkey Creek into Hollister. The water rose rapidly there, several RV’s were reportedly washed away and the situation is still unfolding.

Meanwhile, the river gage on the Roaring River in the park of the same name in Barry County swelled to 8.31 feet as of 5:30 a,m. and is guaranteed to rise much more as another round of very heavy rain is about to impact that area as of this writing (6:30 am).

Radar and Flash Flood Warnings at 6:30 a.m.

Radar and Flash Flood Warnings at 6:30 a.m.

The heavy rain will continue all day!  Please stay safe. I’ll have more timely updates on Twitter and Facebook throughout the day.

 

Another Day, More Flooding

 Posted by at 5:06 pm on August 7, 2013  Daily Weather Blog  No Responses »
Aug 072013
 

hackbarth_jerome_flood

Interstate 44 Underwater

More flash flooding struck a portion of the Ozarks overnight.

It’s been wild again in areas northeast of Springfield.  The Little Piney Creek and Gasconade River received the lion’s share of torrential rains late last night and early this morning.

Radar rain estimates and ground measurements verify a large area of 6-8″ of rain over portions of Maries, Miller and Phelps Counties.

The river rain gage at Jerome for the Gasconade River reached a record level late this morning.  As of late this afternoon, it sits at 31.81 feet. This surpasses the previous record established in December of 1982 and is higher than the historic flood of 2008.  Also, almost a year to this date, the river at this location was near historic lows, more than 31 feet lower than it is now!

River Gage at Jerome, MO

River Gage at Jerome, MO

The Little Piney Creek in Newburg went crazy this morning too.  It peaked at 15.22 feet, causing evacuations in Newburg.

All of this water caused the Gasconade to flow over Interstate 44 today causing massive back-ups.

The real question is: how much more will we get?  Well the forecast is not encouraging!

The latest rainfall projection from the Weather Prediction Center calls for widespread, average totals exceeding 3″ over much of southwest Missouri over the next three days.

A front dropping south into Missouri will help to perpetuate the rain chances by stalling and allowing more rain areas to form and spread from west to east over the next few days.

Weather Prediction Center Rain Forecast

Weather Prediction Center Rain Forecast

With the front around on Thursday and a slight increase in jet stream winds, there is a possibility of some severe storms.  This will be controlled largely by how rain and storm areas evolve later tonight.

Also, today marks the 15th day in a row of below normal temperatures in Springfield.  That run should continue for quite a few more days.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Aug 022013
 

Radar/Clouds/Instability at 3:30 p.m.

Radar/Clouds/Instability at 3:30 p.m.

Here is an update to the severe storm potential for later this afternoon and evening.  I also have a video briefing recorded at 3 pm you can view.

All of the Ozarks continues to be in a slight risk for severe storms.  The same area is in a broad 2% risk of a tornado.

Isolated non-severe cells have bee popping up over southwest Missouri this afternoon. They do no pose much of a threat for severe storms.

Areas of extreme western Missouri and all of eastern Kansas have seen the air become increasing unstable through the late afternoon hours. Storms which fire in these areas will quickly become severe and slide east southeast through the evening hours.

There is a boundary in western Missouri I will eye carefully for any storms which latch on providing an enhanced severe or even weak tornado threat.

Otherwise, the best chance for severe weather is between 5 and 7 pm and west of Springfield.

Thereafter, the storms will congeal into a large rain machine.  Flash flooding will be possible over some areas of the Ozarks and a Flash Flood Watch is in effect for tonight and through the weekend.

Here is by VBLOG of the severe threat recorded at about 3 pm. Stay alert!

Aug 022013
 

slight_risk_ozarks

Severe Storm Risk Today

Much of the Ozarks is in a slight risk of severe storms for later today and tonight.

The area outlined in yellow is the slight risk and the green shaded is the 2% tornado possibility.

The overall picture this morning features an area of rain with a few non-severe storms north and northwest of Springfield in western Missouri.  This band will continue to move east through the morning hours. Rain may impact Springfield by later this morning and will certainly travel over areas to the north of the city.

The area to be watched for severe storms later today is out west.  The air over portions of Kansas and Oklahoma will become unstable later today as heating combines with high humidity values.

Storms will develop over this area and track east with time into southwest Missouri.

The tornado threat is small but not zero.  The exact details of this threat will depend on how small scale features evolve during the day.  Right now, the 2% tornado risk skews north and west of Springfield.

Broadly, any storms that develop will also be heavy rain producers and a flash flood watch is in effect for the Missouri portion of the Ozarks.

I’ll have another update later this afternoon.

 

Heavy Rain, Some Severe Storms

 Posted by at 6:58 am on August 2, 2013  Daily Weather Blog  No Responses »
Aug 022013
 

Flash Flood Watch

Flash Flood Watch

We’ll have the possibility of heavy rain in portions of the Ozarks with several rounds of rain and storms over the next few days.  A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for all of southwest Missouri.

Morning radar shows a large area of rain with some embedded storms sliding southeast out of Kansas.  This first wave of rain should stay most north of Springfield at least during the morning hours.  Storms on its southern end will affect western Missouri later in the morning.

The whole area will regenerate later today and tonight providing more storms and rain areas for our area.

There is also a severe storm risk for later this afternoon as the atmosphere regains some of its instability over western Missouri especially.  An update on this potential will be posted later this morning.

I’ll track the progress of severe weather potential throughout the day and watch which areas will have the heaviest rain set up.

Accumulated Rain Projection Next Few Days

Accumulated Rain Projection Next Few Days

The Weather Prediction Center forecast for rain today and through the weekend is juicy especially in areas north and northeast of Springfield.  A bulls-eye of 2-3″ of accumulated rain is taking shape due to the addition of several round of rain and storms expected over the next few days.

Temperatures will be right at or in some cases below seasonal norms, mostly in the eighties with perhaps a lower ninety in extreme southwest Missouri or northwest Arkansas.

 

 

Jun 162013
 

Radar Estimate of Rain Late Saturday Morning, 6/15/2013

Radar Estimate of Rain Late Saturday Morning, 6/15/2013

A very small area of southern Springfield received 9″+ of rain in only a few hours during the late morning hours of Saturday, June 15, 2013. This caused extreme flash flooding.

The rain storm caused the Springfield National Weather Service office to issue its first Flash Flood Emergency for the city. This is a special category above and beyond the Flash Flood Warning, reserved for times when a combination of extreme flooding and a major population areas overlap.

The enclosed map indicates the distribution of the rain fairly well but is off on the rain totals. This is not surprising given the intensity of the event.

In the hours leading up to this rain “event”, I remember commenting on the random nature of expected rain and thunder areas expected and that somewhat heavier rain might be expected.  It was a hard forecast to nail down because unlike the approach of a front which has a definite structure and somewhat more predictable movement, the features controlling the rain burst on Saturday were much more subtle.

One of those features was what is called an outflow boundary, a mini cool front of sorts which is produced by the cool air rushing out of a thunderstorm or storms.  On Saturday morning, such a outflow was traveling south over southern Missouri and eventually passed just south of Springfield during the late morning hours.

Some outflow areas are good at providing a sort of gentle push up in the atmosphere and can actively generate rain and/or storms behind them. I commented on this during Saturday mornings’ “One Minute Weather” discussion!

On Saturday morning, this lifting of the air persisted.  At my house, I heard of lot of thunder and witnessed cloud-to-ground bolts. Since I had just developed a new lightning image feature on this web site, I was actively warning outdoor folks about the lightning and encouraging them to check the map.

Flooding Near Weaver Road (Jason Harlow)

Flooding Near Weaver Road (Jason Harlow)

It rained, the rain got heavier but it was all within what I thought was possible on that morning.

There were other contributing factors for heavier than normal rain on this morning. The jet stream winds or overall steering currents were on the slow side. This meant that storms were going to move slowly on this day. All else remaining equal, a slow moving storm will always dump heavier rain. It simply has more time to do so over any given spot!

Also, the humidity over a deep layer of the atmosphere was high in a “plume” which arced from Texas , over the Ozarks and on up into the Midwest.  These “plumes” of higher humidity lead to rain and storms which have higher rain efficiency.

Finally, the ultimate slow moving storm is one which doesn’t move at all!  This is what happened on the south side of Springfield as a storm with a high rainfall rate parked over one location. As a result, the rain totals went through the roof! (literally and figuratively)

By the way, stationary movement is more likely during the summer months when upper level winds are much slower. It becomes possible for a balance between these weak winds and the development of new storm cells to be reached so that the net propagation of a storm is nearly zero. It doesn’t move!

This leads me to the next point and a question, “Will a weather forecaster ever think that 9″ of rain is possible in only a few hours time?” Answer: possible, maybe. Forecast? Probably not.

Near Cardinal Toward Woodhaven (Linden Mueller)

Near Cardinal Toward Woodhaven (Linden Mueller)

This is because events like this occur in very small scales of space and time.  They are controlled by smaller scale features that are either missed or under-forecast.  The computer models we so often reference are not always going to see these features.  Even if the models were capable, we don’t have enough detailed observations often enough. The models would also have to be run over a smaller area to pick up the details needed.  All of this is possible but we’re not there yet!

 

 

 

Jun 152013
 

Radar/Lightning at 7:40 a.m. (click for latest image)

Radar/Lightning at 7:40 a.m. (click for latest image)

It’s hard to nail down when roving bands of rain and thunder will occur this weekend. It looks like the best chance is late Sunday and early Monday.

Some non-severe storms are rumbling around Lake of the Ozarks this morning.  Lake interests can check out a new image on this web site which shows current lightning activity.

This activity has left a cool outflow boundary or two in the Ozarks. These may help to promote additional rain and storm areas later today.  I don’t expect much in the way of severe activity with these storms as the wind shear is pretty weak.  But a gust of wind and some small hail might be connected to some of the stronger storms. Some locally heavy downpours might pop up as well.

The rain pattern this weekend is full of somewhat random clusters of showers and storms.  However, a cool front will help to organize the rain activity by Sunday evening and into early Monday.

Rain Projection Through Monday

Rain Projection Through Monday

In fact, the general pattern of rainfall for today, Sunday and Monday, collectively, is pretty healthy with much of the Ozarks expected to pick up a three day total of over an inch and a half of rain!

High temperatures will vary with the rain clusters. I think middle and upper eighties are likely both Saturday and Sunday.

The weather behind the front will be nice on late Monday and into at least Tuesday.  More showers and storms may come back along with the return of warmer air by the middle and late portion of the week.